Greek Standoff Help Or Hurt The Euro? Feb, 2 2015
New Greek Government Standing Up To Troika Has Potential To Be Great For Euro
With the new Greek government mandate Prim Minister Tsipras and Finance Minister Varoufakis have been handed by the Greek people, finding a way out of the mess the Europeans have made for them selves may just be what the doctor ordered for the Euro. Yes some are calling for a collapse in the Euro, of which is entirely possible but it sure seems that the Greeks have elected some smart people that arent connected at the hip to the banksters. This will be a great opportunity for those in power to potentially do something good for the people and let the banks lay in the bed they made. Nothing says it better than a Chris Martenson interview with Nomi Prins this morning.
Chris Martenson: To me, it couldn’t have been more obviously obscene then in 2010, and I believe maybe 2009, right after the big banks had been handed just vast, huge, very favorable handouts and bailouts during the Great Recession — and then they handed themselves record bonuses. I thought optically that was just horrible. As somebody who was inside the banking system: Are they that tone deaf? What’s behind that sort of behavior?
Nomi Prins: Indeed, they have become very isolated.
It began with the period before the 1970s when different people were rising to leadership in banks, and worsened in the 80s when we started seeing people who had more sociopathic tendencies or less ability to appreciate the idea of the public’s economic stability being beneficial to growing their institutions. They no longer viewed it as necessary.
As soon as the public economic health is not part of the equation in the success of the big banks then in short they have no reason to care and the system we have is what we get. The banks do have something to fear with the Greek government. They want the prosperity of the people brought back into that equation. Be sure to read the open letter Alexis Tsipras wrote to the German people over the weekend. The link is below the news events for today.
EUR/USD Still Waiting
The EUR/USD holding a slightly tighter range last Friday can only mean they have no clue which way they will be pushing this pair for now. The levels havent changed although the 1.1383 now has hourly 200 confluence and Fridays high and low have more risk considering the levels just beyond them they may run stops before a turn.
GBP/USD Finished Third Push and Reversal
The GBP/USD made the third push last Friday along with the reversal. I have to admit it gets me in the craw that I caught the trade held it through the news and was stopped out break even by three pips just before it ran off 90+ in my direction. Such as the life of a forex trader though. Today I wont have a bias until I potentially see some hourly conviction above the 1.5095 level to look for a long. Otherwise as long as they hold below I will be open for either direction. The only level to short will be the 1.5095 on a clear set up showing they wont let it pass but otherwise I will be open for the long starting with the gap open price of 1.5063 (Friday Close). If that cant hold the the next best level is down at 1.5017. The 1.5036 is valid but much less significant and higher risk taking with no clear direction.
EUR/JPY Holding Lower Range
They seem to be as undecided on the direction of the EUR/JPY as they are with the EU these days so remaining open on direction here is best as well. With a 100+ pip Asian range they do still have some room with the 200+ pip ADR we are seeing right now. I do expect them to test one of the higher levels during London today with the best level is down at 132.74. The 133.03 is valid and has psych confluence but does carry higher risk in the middle of the range. The closest level thats good to short is 133.68 but still higher risk than waiting for a test of Fridays highs of 134.18.
Forex News Today
Todays releases start off with Spanish, Italian, German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI data. The big ones of course Germany and EZ. The others could get them moving on a larger miss but I have my doubts they will miss big enough. The news from Germany has been disappointing lately so I see the probability for a disappointment higher but in order to create a sustained move it will need to be close to or below the 50 level. Otherwise they will still be watching to see any surprises from the EZ dealings with Greece.
The UK also has Manufacturing PMI data expected to slightly improve. I dont expect much of a miss here and with the EZ sliding deeper into potential recession and being the UK biggest trading partner the chance for a disappointment is higher. Otherwise if its close they will most likely just use it for manipulation.
The US has ISM Manufacturing PMI as well. Expected to drop a bit, it will most likely be close as well but a larger disappointment should have a bigger impact considering what has been going on at the Fed lately.
AUD traders need to watch out for the RBA rate decision tomorrow. Expectations are for a hold but I have seen many stories that they may cut rates. If thats more expected then the hold will send the Aussie upward while a surprise cut will see it tank. Its a risky trade at this point so I would recommend that if there is a trade today its worth holding with profit only at risk. Otherwise stay out until the dust settles after the announcement.
Below is the link to the Alexis Tsipras open letter to the Germans mainly but really Europe and the world as well. I hope you enjoy it as much as I did.
MY APOLOGIES FOR THE BROKEN VIDEO OF INSIDE JOB IN THE COMMENTARY. I DIDNT THINK I WAS COPY WRITE INFRINGING WITH AN ITALIAN VERSION ALREADY ON YOUTUBE. HOWEVER YOU CAN STILL WATCH IT AT THIS LINK. STILL A MUST SEE!
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