How Much More Dollar Strength? Forex Commentary November 27th 2015
EUR/USD Holds Tight Range
Obviously I took the day off trading as Thanksgiving is really a wild card when it comes to the price action that you will see. Sometimes you get a normal looking market and other times you get an extreme. The point here is not so much what the market looks like, and more what type of liquidity you have during a holiday market. Anytime you have a US bank holiday liquidity will always be lower by default and therefore it is abnormal volume. As I always say, there are too many good trading days to make a mistake on a day that you know will be different. Overall the EUR/USD remained in a tight range even with the US Dollar remaining quite strong.
Both gold and silver look like they may be setting up for a break towards fresh lows which would send the EUR/USD to the downside as well more than likely. At this point though we do not have a market cycle bias and therefore we will be open to taking any stop run from our pre-selected manipulation points.
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Pound Approaching Major Daily Support
Overall with both pairs I’m only listing, and therefore trading from, large manipulation points. Today, I do not have a directional bias on the GBP/USD and I only have one lower and one upper manipulation point from which I would consider a trade. I have a feeling we will be seeing more downside which does make me want to be more aggressive with upper levels. I have gone back and forth on potentially adding the Asian highs in but I have officially left them out as they are a bit more aggressive. For those of you who favor that style it would be worth looking at a stop run on that point for a short setup.
Forex News For November 27th 2015
UK GDP Second Estimate q/q 4:30 AM Eastern: Any deviation of .1 +/- from the expected number will create quite the large spike in price. In general the q/q number will get a bigger reaction. Historically when the q/q number stays the same but the y/y number deviates you will still get a reaction but the follow through beyond just the initial spike is 50/50. This release is expected at .5 for the month.