Huge Daily Chart Stop Run On Silver – Market Analysis November 24th 2015
Yesterday I mentioned the major lows being broken in Silver. As I alluded to in yesterday’s FX analysis its important to wait and see what happens on this retest as a breakout often ends up being false. At this point we still need further confirmation but we do have a longer term daily chart stop run reversal potentially setting up. I really hope we don’t see any type of market reversal confirmation as I want lower prices in commodities as any reader of the Day Trading Forex Live blog knows. Even if we do get further confirmation I would expect it to be more of a retracement of the latest push down rather than a long term reversal. As always, I will continue to update the situation in metals as I see fit. For the time being I’m still waiting ever so patiently for lower prices of true reversal confirmation to begin buying physical again.
EUR/USD Decides To Taunt Me
The Euro and the Pound for that matter, were very frustrating. The EUR/USD had a beautiful stop run of our first upper manipulation point during the NY Session. Unfortunately we had a slightly deeper push up which resulted in me getting stopped out by 4 pips before the market made the expected push down. This is what we term as a stop run on a stop run. In our online forex course that details the rules of selecting manipulation points, we have certain rules to reduce the possibility of this. One of those rules is we don’t use levels that are within 20 pips of either other. While this does a very good job of eliminating the majority of these moves, it will never catch them all.
I also had a stop run short on the EUR/JPY which resulted in a break even stop out before the move to the downside.
Since the Euro failed to give the second push to the downside I’m going to open up directional bias for today. We could still see the market cycle continue and if we get the second push down today I will look for the third push down the following day. For today though, yesterday’s stagnant range and lack of continuation means I would feel more comfortable trading both directions until proven otherwise.
GBP/USD Provides Second Push Down
The analysis for the GBP/USD is rather simple. We had what we term as the second push to the downside and therefore today we will be looking for the third push down. At this point we only have one upper manipulation point from which I would look to see a stop run reversal trade set up from. I did mention a few other possible manipulation points in the daily market preview video, so be sure to check that out if you are a member.
Forex News For November 24th 2015
German IFO Business Climate 4:00 AM Eastern: For the last 3 months this news has been unusually quiet but that doesn’t mean you cannot see a spike like we did 4 and 5 months back. Those spikes were well over 15 pips and therefore I would not carry a EUR/USD trade into this news. This piece of news does have a strong history of eventually moving the price beyond the initial spike and therefore this is statistically not a good news event to trade against the deviation, especially if it is near or larger than a full point from the expected number. This month 108.2 is the expected number.
UK Inflation Report 5:00 AM Eastern: Definitely has the potential to be a market mover. Unless you are experienced and getting the comments live, it is best to avoid the Pound during this time.
US Prelim GDP q/q 8:30 AM Eastern: One of the few big market movers during the US Session. Last quarter’s release in August was +.5 better than expected and created a 25 pip spike in the first 10 seconds followed by a 80 pip move total over the next few hours. This is one that will shift market direction and not a good news event to trade against on any deviation over .2 +/- from the expected number. This quarter 2% is the expected number.
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