Janet Yellen Rescues Equities Again Jan. 30, 2015
Drop In Stocks Rescued By None Other Than Janet Herself
Of course this doesnt surprise me that someone would come out and verbally intervene on the drop in stocks due to the Fed announcement. After all they did change the language just enough to try and promote the idea that they would be raising rates still while cleverly attaching it to relative data while saying the economy is all good yet again. The problem is as I have said, the data is crap and everything they look at to give the feel good about the economy and growth are manipulated to show just that when in reality its not. Will they ever learn? Probably not. Again I am not alone with this excerpt from a Zero Hedge article this morning.
The WTF moment has arrived: the moment when the Chair of the “independent” Fed tells an audience of Democrats, away from the public, just what her plans for monetary policy are in private:
YELLEN TOLD DEMOCRATS NO RATE INCREASE `IMMEDIATELY’: SCHUMER
We knew some Fed member would speak today to boost stocks but had no idea it would be Yellen herself.
EUR/USD Holds Lower End Of Range
The probability of the drop below Wednesdays lows yesterday being a fake out seem warranted today but it dont look like the big boys in the US agreed. At this point its best to remain open on direction and look for the most significant levels to turn price. Right now the best level to short is yesterdays highs of 1.1366 but with the two levels just above carries more risk even though its a daily high. The best level I see for a potential long is 1.1267. The levels in between are valid but I refrain from trading them without having a directional bias due to the added risk.
GBP/USD Finishes First and Second Pushes
This will be my preferred pair to trade today looking for the third push. I am a little concerned with the potential bottoming at 1.5035 increasing the chance of a deeper pullback up to 1.5118 but this break to the upside during Asia having fake out probabilities helps. At this point I will want to see a widening of the Asian range to use its high for a level. Hopefully holding here and dropping below yesterdays close before a retest during the London session.
EUR/JPY Tests Weekly Highs
With the move to test the range highs yesterday I will be open on direction for this pair today. There was a valid entry for the short this morning so congrats to those who caught it. Right now I am waiting for conviction below 133.59 to look for a back side entry during London this afternoon. As usual trading inside a range with no direction is riskier so the set up will need to be clear and have the UJ agree.
Forex News Today
The only real significant news event early on is German Retail Sales. The probability for a disappointment is higher considering the CPI data yesterday. Later is the Euro Zone CPI figures that also have a better chance for a miss below expectations. If thats the case we should see the Euro weaken but may not create a sustained move since the ECB already is in print mode even though they haven’t really started yet.
Later the US has GDP figures with the bar already set low so I dont think a large miss will happen but should be watched.
Have a great weekend
MY APOLOGIES FOR THE BROKEN VIDEO OF INSIDE JOB IN THE COMMENTARY. I DIDNT THINK I WAS COPY WRITE INFRINGING WITH AN ITALIAN VERSION ALREADY ON YOUTUBE. HOWEVER YOU CAN STILL WATCH IT AT THIS LINK. STILL A MUST SEE!
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