July 18, 2014 Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY Analysis
We didn’t get much movement on the EUR/USD yesterday but do have a sign that they will most likely make the third push today with the hourly close below Wednesdays lows. It doesn’t guarantee a move but does add probability. There also isn’t much news to help the push and the big level at 1.3512 looms just below so the safest entry short will be from 1.3534 or just above at yesterdays highs if they want to run stops. I will still be open for the long if they show they wont let it pass 1.3512 but it will take a lot to override that conviction that happened during the NY/London overlap.
The GBP/USD did make a push to the downside for what I would normally look at as a first long term push but also has characteristics of a second intraday push from the highs. In current market conditions I expect they will just run the third push to test the recent lows today, however considering its still in the range from Tuesday I will be open for the long providing it don’t show conviction to the downside during the London session. The best level to short is 1.7111 right now but if they do show conviction then the Asian highs come into play along with the lows if they run it deep enough for the conviction. I will be open for the long at yesterdays lows and now that it has shown some bottoming it has a better chance however I will still need something to show my small short bias is wrong.
The EUR/JPY made a nice run down for the third push. In a normal situation I would be looking for the reversal and I will be to some degree today but they are showing early signs of an extended push with the hourly close below yesterdays lows early in the Asian session. The USD/JPY also has the same conviction showing they may strengthen the Yen today more than likely on the geopolitical issues with the Malaysian Airlines plane being shot down. The best level for the long will be the current lows around 136.72 while the best level to short at 137.05. The issue is there are other levels that are valid but with the close proximity to the others they carry more risk. If it does run to 137.20 I would rather be long from the lows looking to take profit but will certainly consider the short if it gets there.
Forex News Today
There is literally no significant news for these pairs today but for those Loonie traders there is Canadian CPI figures. I have my doubts it will do much barring a big miss but I admit Canadian news isn’t something I follow much.
Have a great weekend
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