July 22, 2014 EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY Daily Analysis
Well, so much for getting a move with no news to help make the push. I guess it was Monday so we will have to wait and see if they might want to make an effort today. Again there isn’t much news other than some US CPI and housing data later in the day so it may be slow going for the London session today.
The move the EUR/USD did make does show the potential for the fake out to the upside now so there really isn’t much to go on price action wise to help get a clue on direction today. On top of that the levels are tight so again the safest entries will be at the extremes. The best short will be from 1.3541 or just above at yesterdays highs and although I will consider a long from 1.3514 if certain criteria is met,it would be better if they pushed lower to at least 1.3504 where it seems like the psych 1.3500 is holding it up.
The GBP/USD isn’t much different staying in the range and holding the daily lows from the 15th. As long as we get some conviction above 1.7075 during the London session I will look for a long at 1.7057 but if it tests yesterdays highs I will also consider the Asian lows. Otherwise I will also consider the highs yesterday for the short if it sets up nicely but will be watching to see if they want to test 1.7111 or the hourly 200 that has been getting decent respect lately. Having said all that the safest entries are still going to be at 1.7111 for the short and 1.7042 or lower for the long. Any of the other levels carry more risk inside this range.
The EUR/JPY also had the range bound day yesterday but is showing some signs of conviction to the upside this morning. However already testing within a pip of the next level and not closing closer to its highs shows some doubt in a push to the upside today. I will be open on direction on this pair as well and look to see if there is any more better signs of conviction. It is setting up for the short now but since the UJ doesnt agree with the set up I will wait for clearer signals and see if it can test the next level at 137.40. If it shows the conviction above yesterdays highs I will be looking for the long during London providing it don’t test there. At that point I will look at yesterdays highs or the Asian lows for the long. Otherwise I will consider the short in the next hour or so from yesterdays highs if the UJ helps out.
Forex News Today
The only news during London is UK CBI Industrial orders which shouldn’t be that big of a mover barring a large miss. Otherwise the US has CPI figures and Existing Home Sales later during the NY session. If Core CPI does drop below zero they may get the deflation fear going causing the USD to weaken on more potential printing but with the taper going as scheduled I have my doubts it will unless its well below the zero mark. Otherwise I expect the housing data to be a non event as well barring a big miss which is unlikely.
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