July 25, 2014 Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY Analysis
The move on the EUR/USD yesterday tells me that the conviction on the first push Tuesday was not enough to continue the second and break the significant daily level at 1.3436. Since there is better hourly conviction to the upside I will be treating this as the fake out and first push to the upside. However with it closing more or less flat on the day I will be more open for the short as well. It is Friday and there is the chance we see the end of week/month flows kick in but that actually should boost the probability for the move up since this months move has been down for the most part. Having said that they did push to a new yearly low yesterday but as we can see they don’t seem to have the conviction to keep it going right now.
The best level I see for the long today is down at 1.3449 due to the distance from current price. The Asian lows are valid but in order to take the entry there it would be best to see them play the breakout traders to the Asian highs during the London session first . Otherwise I will only consider the short from 1.3484 if I miss the long and the set up is very clear.
The GBP/USD made a nice second push down on worse than expected Retail Sales data yesterday. I was hoping for the clean set up before the news and it just didn’t happen. Im glad some members made the pips on the confirmation entry two candles before the release but I have to say I like them sort of trades before news to be cleaner set ups. Good job guys as long as you know the risks if the set up is questionable. As we always say “its better to follow your rules and take the hit then to break them and make money”
I will be looking for the third push today here with the best level being at 1.7005 considering the distance from current price. However if they really want to take stops they will run to 1.7022.
The EUR/JPY followed the EU seeing some Yen weakness come it with Euro strength. The potential fake out I mentioned in yesterdays commentary did turn out to be the case and now we have the first push in the opposite direction. I will be looking for the long here as well today. I have to say I like the set up happening now but would prefer the UJ agree more since the level is a weaker one. If the UJ has the conviction close below its level it will prove me correct and good reason to stay out. If this level breaks with conviction I expect it will go to 136.82 before turning. Otherwise if it holds along with the UJ then I will consider the long here again in an hour or so providing the UJ gives me something better. I will consider the short from yesterdays highs where the hourly 200 sits as confluence.
Forex News Today
The calendar is a little busy today starting early with GfK German Consumer Climate. Expected flat so we should only see a push if it misses big and with the IFO Business Climate a couple hours later, it will most likely be used to manipulate on a miss. The IFO data is expected to drop slightly so will need a bigger miss to the downside to cause Euro weakness. They will be looking to see if there is any reason for the Buba to cave in and let the ECB print but so far they have held their ground even as German data gets worse so I don’t think its going to happen any time soon.
The UK has its GDP figures today expecting a small rise in the yearly figures. My thoughts are it should be close but if it does disappoint we will get the third push as raising interest rates will go flying out the window.
The US has durable goods orders and with the very bad New Home sales yesterday has a much better chance of disappointing as well.
Have a great weekend