July 29, 2014 EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY Daily Analysis
With no second push on the EUR/USD yesterday the probability has gone down a bit that we will get it. I will still have a small bias for the short while more open for the long today. There is also a fairly decent bottoming formation that started Friday last week so all it will take is some conviction above yesterdays highs during the London session today and I will look for the long providing its clear and it don’t test the next level at 1.3454 in the process.
The best level to short from is yesterdays highs of 1.3442 but with price so close right now they will need to run almost to the lows in order for it to be a good level during London. Otherwise the 1.3454 is valid along with 1.3460. However I should say that in order to short from those levels the set up will need to be very good and I will want a great entry since they may just push it up to test 1.3484 on the month end flows. Keep in mind this has been a long down month for the EU and its going to take some conviction to close this month at lower prices which is also a good reason to be open for the long today. The best level is a stop run to yesterdays lows of 1.3426 but they could dip to Fridays lows as well.
The GBP/USD didn’t go anywhere as well so I wont have a bias on this pair today. There was some small conviction to the upside during the US session but with no follow through it puts some doubt in it. The best thing to do on this pair is trade the manipulation ate either 1.6999 for the short or 1.6962 for the long while looking for the conviction in either direction to give more of a clue on direction.
The EUR/JPY didn’t move much either staying in a 28 pip range. With this pair being in the middle of the larger range of 86 pips I will be open for direction here as well. The best level to short is yesterdays highs of 136.90 but I will need the UJ agreement during the Asian session. Otherwise during London I will want to see price leave the Asian box at the lows to take the short from yesterdays highs. The safer long entry will be from 136.63 but the 136.76 is also valid. It does carry higher risk but if they show conviction it has more probability.
Forex News Today
The calendar is rather dead again today. There is a MPC member speech for the UK but I have my doubts it will be any different than the rhetoric Carney has been spewing lately. Everything will depend on data being good or bad as to when or if they will ever raise rates. Uhh I think never haha.
Later the US does have the CB Consumer Confidence figures expected to rise slightly. As long as this is close then we shouldn’t see much but if there is a large miss the potential for them to move on USD strength or weakness is good. Otherwise we may just see a slow market again today.
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