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July 8th Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Analysis

July 07
23:50 2014

The EUR/USD did make an attempt at finishing the third push yesterday although I am not impressed with the 35 pip range of the move. With the rejection off the 1.3575 level and close toward the high of the day it seems as though the chance for the reversal is higher but I will need more to get a bias on direction today during the London session. I expect that the highs at 1.3610 will hold during the Asian session this morning and preferably get the conviction move above for the potential long later during the live training session during London. If that happens then I will be looking at the 1.3600, 1.3591 and 1.3584 levels for the long. Otherwise I will need to see Asia dip down this morning and leave the Asian box close to the lows to let London run stops above the highs at 1.3610 for a short.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD got an early start for its move yesterday running 30 pips for the Asian session, following through for a push to the downside. I will have a small bias for the next push down today but if the EU don’t follow it will need help from the EUR/GBP like it had yesterday. Since that is something I never like to count on I will still be open for the long from 1.7113. The best level to short right now is at 1.7150 but if they manage to run it down during the Asian session I will be open for the short at the Asian highs as well during the London session. With the hourly 200 having the psych 1.7100 just below I will be cautious about taking the long from above and need to see they wont let it pass 1.7113. If I do get the short from 1.7150 I expect those levels will be hard to break so the best course is to just take profit if it gets tests 1.7100.

GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The calendar is slow again today with only UK Industrial and Manufacturing Production during the London session. They are expected to be flat on the more important Manufacturing data and a slight drop on the other. The issue is that they are both close to going negative on the monthly data and if the Mfg. does then the GBP will weaken while I expect it will need a bigger miss to the upside to create any GBP strength. There is also the NIESR GDP figures later in the day that could also help weaken the GBP if it slides as well.

The US does have a Fed member speaking but its after our trading hours so will be something to watch if you are in a trade but safer to just take profit or at least have the stop to break even before hand.

Aussie traders need to keep an eye on the Chinese inflation data early tomorrow morning but these shouldn’t have too much impact barring a big miss.

Happy Trading


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