June 10, 2013 EUR/USD, GBP/USD Daily Analysis
The EUR/USD this morning started off the week with a 30 pip gap to the downside that has already closed. It has tested Fridays lows and found support at the level I expected the pullback to in Fridays commentary. Its too bad it took Non Farm Payrolls to do it making it untradeable. However I will admit I find comfort in knowing the probability before it happened. I will never catch every trade so no worries. Today starts a new week with all the big news releases behind us so it should be a nice profitable week.
Im going to treat this as a third push chop with no bias on direction today. I could make an argument for a first push down and have a small bias to the downside but being open on direction is a better choice I think. Since we already have a 42 pip Asian range this morning the first level I will be looking to short from is the Asian session highs at 1.3227 but would prefer a stop run to 1.3241. With the overall highs Friday not far away and another significant level at 1.3267 an entry at either level, the set up will need to be clear. Otherwise a stop run to Fridays lows will be good for a long position but I will be watching for the hourly close below to get out if I do get an entry and then look for the pullback for the short.
The GBP/USD has a better reason to hold a small short bias with a 120+ pip move down Friday alone but I will be keeping an open mind here also. Again the Asian range is wide enough to warrant looking at the levels of the range for manipulation during the London session. If we don’t get it at those levels the next best place for the short is the 1.5605 area. Otherwise I will be looking for a possible long at Fridays lows around 1.5492 keeping an eye on the hourly close of course.
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Forex News Today
Make sure you check out our new Economic Calendar by hovering over the Commentary tab on the main menu.
The economic calendar may look pretty busy today but there is really nothing of note and Im thinking if we are to see much volatility it will be on a tape bomb.
There is a Fed member speaking late in the trading day so I will be keeping an eye on that if I am still trading then.
If you haven’t already watched Sterlings latest live trade video of the USD/CHF. I recommend you do so as it had a great set up of the stop run reversal. An easy high probability set up to trade with minimal risk. You can watch it at the link below.
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