June 10, 2014 Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold Analysis
The EUR/USD did make a nice push for a Monday yesterday giving a first push down for over 80 pips. This does give me some hope with getting back to more normal moves but we will need to see this continue for at least a couple weeks in order to have any confidence it will continue. I have to admit I did expect the bad news is good for the Euro scenario to play out a little more than it did but this move shows the exuberance was short lived and of course increases the probability we will see the cycle to continue for another two pushes. Today I will have the bias for the next push down to at least test the lows Friday before it pulls back and potentially goes into a chop due to the lows Friday being just above this years lows, which will take some effort and conviction to break.
The best level for the short today is the 1.3620 level that has a boat load of confluence with the hourly 200 just above along with the daily 200 EMA as well. However if they break it and show conviction below yesterdays lows early on during the London session then they will most likely only run it to the Asian highs or even just bump yesterdays lows for an entry if the run below 1.3581 is large enough. I will be open for the long but only if they run it up without giving a short entry and then show they wont let it pass yesterdays lows preferable taking stops below.
The GBP/USD going into indecision mode shows there is the potential for these two pairs to run opposite directions today. I wont be having a bias on this pair but would prefer it show the USD strength as well. I have my doubts that will happen with the EUR/GBP showing a push down along with the daily chart looking very bearish ready to break this years lows but one can hope.
In order to be convinced they will run the GU up today I will want to see the conviction above yesterdays highs and hope to be long from the lows waiting for the break if they run it there. If there is no long entry I will be looking for the trap to go short at 1.6831 and even if they do show the conviction and test Fridays highs at the same time I will be looking for the short above at 1.6844 but will want to see they wont let it pass there. Otherwise I will be looking for the long if they run straight for the lows at 1.6786. However I should also point out the four hour 200 just above and the hourly just below at 1.6780 that has much more confluence with two daily lows. If I do get long from the lows and we get the conviction during London I will close break even or a small loss and look for the short.
Gold remained in the chop yesterday not making much of a move. I am happy that the high end of the yellow box is holding during Asia this morning but that is not enough to give me a bias so I will be waiting for conviction above 1257.55 before I am convinced they are going to make the move up but will be open for the long at the Asian lows with a clear set up today. Otherwise they could run the smack down from 1257.55 as well so I will be open for the short from there but like I said yesterday they will likely wait for a rise first.
Forex News Today
All of the significant data today is coming from the UK in the form of Industrial and Manufacturing Production and later in the day the NIESR GDP Estimate. It seems the bar is set low on the production numbers so the probability of a miss to the upside is higher. However with the UK being more of a service economy there is the chance these disappoint and if they do the USD strength should continue on the GBP/USD. Otherwise if they do surprise upward the GBP should be stronger but mainly against the Euro and we will likely see the EG drop and GU rise. The wild card is the GDP figures later. If that surprises upward as well it should have the same effect but has potential to be a stronger move against the USD while the EG holds back a little but moves anyway.
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