June 19, 2014 Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold Analysis
With the Fed doing pretty much what most expected with the taper of 10Bil more on asset purchases, equities jumped and seemingly risk jumped for the day with the EUR/USD closing close to its highs. What does seem a little weird is that even though they still say all is fine they lowered the growth rate for the US GDP for the next two years as well. Something just don’t seem right with that and remember the Fed gets growth rates wrong much more than they have ever gotten it right. That’s why they call them projections while some call it wishful thinking. What was also interesting to see Gold up on the day as well. Just another questionable thing regarding risk.
With this first push up on the EUR/USD I will have a small bias for the next push but also very cautious since it also has a topping formation as well as coming into significant daily resistance at 1.3600. This will be tough to break without serious conviction that in all honesty I don’t think there is reason for considering the ECB is most likely the next central bank to go full retard. The best level for a long today is 1.3578 but since it is rather close to current price they may dip as low as the hourly 200 or even 1.3556. If they do run it that low I would prefer to be short from a stop run to the highs waiting to see if they have the gumption to break it to the downside pricing in the ECB jumping on the QE bandwagon. The Asian highs are valid as well for the short but would be best to see them run it down a little more during the Asian session, however seeing the stop run above yesterdays highs would be better.
The GBP/USD is still mired in the range its been holding for four days now with no conviction either way. At this point I am thinking the probability for the break to the upside has increased since there has been no desire to close the inefficient move lowering the chance they will. The stop run below Tuesdays lows adds to that as well. In order to get that break we need either the EUR/GBP to break down substantially or the EU blow to the upside as well on USD weakness. The best level for the long is the current Asian lows of 1.6973 but if they do show the conviction above 1.7008 then any pullback will likely be smaller if there is even a decent pullback to get in for the long. I imagine there are a lot of breakout orders just above that will spike a break pretty well. I will be open for the short at 1.7002 or stop run above 1.7008 while watching for the conviction.
Gold made a second intraday push yesterday and I expect it will make a third today running up to test the highs at 1284.78. A best case scenario would be to see it dip to the 1272.79-1271.16 range from yesterday and show some clear trapping for the long and take profit just short of testing 1284.78. Otherwise if it just run straight off I will be open for the short from the 1283.34-1281.91 range with some clear manipulation there.
Forex News Today
The calendar is light today with just Retail Sales data from the UK during the London session. Expectations are set rather low considering the last upside surprises. As long as it misses to the upside again then they might have good reason to break the GU to the upside. If it is close to expectations then the probability goes down as more thoughts of the impossibility of raising rates kicks in.
The US has the Philly Fed Index expected to drop so if it disappoints then USD weakness may creep up but it will need to be big I expect. Otherwise a miss to the upside should hold the EU and GU from breaking to the upside and possibly see a decent move down.
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