June 23rd 2014 EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold Daily Analysis
The push down on the EUR/USD last Friday leaves us with a clear example of why we need to keep in mind the end of week flows as they didn’t have the conviction in higher prices, at least for the time being. If I go back and mark intraday pushes there was three to the highs telling me that the consistency of them lately has turned them into higher probability moves. Until we see that they are running the long term pushes more regular I will be using the intraday pushes to trade from. I cant say I like the idea but adapting to the market is the key to long term success and before I make any adjustments to my plan I need to see consistency in what they are doing for at least two+ months. This is the case now so even though intraday pushes are normally less reliable, current conditions require a slight change of plan in order to capitalize on them. No worries.
Today I will be treating this as the first push down looking to see the second. The best level I see is the 1.3600 for the short but with how close it is to current price they may push it to 1.3612 if they don’t make a deeper run down during the Asian session this morning, preferably testing the hourly 200 before the run to 1.3600 during London. I should also say that the 1.3612 is not a great level so I will need to see clear trapping there in order to take the entry since they may push as high as Fridays highs also. Otherwise I will be open for the long from 1.3570 since the hourly 200 hasn’t been getting much respect lately. It is still a valid level with the confluence of Thursdays low but they are more likely to test lower before any push up today.
The GBP/USD had the same move down on Friday showing the USD strength or at the very least no commitment to move above the yearly highs in the near future. It seems as though I was a bit premature in my thinking they would push it through on a Friday but was worth giving my long from 1.7008 a chance for a bigger profit. I did manage to get 34 pips from it but there wasn’t any price action telling me to jump out with 45-50 at the highs so when I had to leave my desk Friday I moved my stop just below the most recent lows and was taken out when they tested it and hour later. Not a great trade but better than getting hit break even on a trade that ran 50+ pips.
The push down doesn’t quite negate the first long term push but does come close so I will be slightly bias for the long while more open for the short since this does qualify as an intraday push down. The good thing is the levels are rather clear with 1.7002 and the daily level lows of 1.6987 being where I will look to go long. The only levels I will be looking to short are 1.7031 and 1.7058. In order for the 1.7031 to have good probability they will need to push down further during the Asian session as well, preferably testing the lows Friday.
Gold stayed in a tight range Friday having a decent bounce off the daily 200 EMA. There is good reason to think they will let it go higher with that bounce but being open for the short from the highs has its merits also. The best level for the long is Fridays lows but pushing off just a bit higher, as gold is still a bargain at these prices, is a good possibility as well. If it does break down below then a run to 1297.50 is likely to try and force out weak holders. Otherwise if it does manage to break to the upside it only has one daily level at 1342.39 that has potential to slow it down before a move to the recent highs.
Forex News Today
The Calendar start off with French, German and Euro Zone Manufacturing and Services PMI data. With most expected rather flat it will take a decent miss to create any conviction on the release. As usual the German figures will be watched most as they look for more information to add to the probability the Bundesbank will give the green light for full blown QE so a big disappointment will be what I am looking for. Otherwise it most likely wont create a sustained move.
The US has a low impact Manufacturing PMI as well but will need a big miss being not as well followed as other PMI data. Just a bit later is Existing Home sales expecting a rise. Considering the slump in housing data from the US lately this will likely disappoint as well but I have my doubts it will cause any untapering thoughts to get much USD weakness from. If it does manage to come in better than expected the USD should have a pop but any sustained move will be more on the potential for the ECB print fest and Fed tapering to continue.
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