June 3rd 2014 EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold Daily Analysis
The EUR/USD has gone back into the lower end chop from Friday last week leaving nothing clear on direction they are planning the break. At this point I expect more of the same unless we get a big surprise from some of the big news this week. The best level I see for the short is from yesterdays commentary at 1.3619 while I will be open for the long at 1.3589. The Asian lows are valid for the long but I will need to see they wont let it pass since they may test the overall lows before a fun up.
The GBP/USD agrees that they are waiting for news this week in order to push. Of course they most likely know what the releases are already but they cant really let the cat out of the bag yet in effort to at least hide that fact the best they can. I will be open for direction here today as well and prefer a short even though I don’t have a bias. The reason is even though the cycle has been broken there has been no real effort to break any significant levels to the upside and if the USD becomes the driver both pairs have a higher probability of dropping than running up. Having said that they could also be loading up for the push up so being cautious and open for the clear manipulation is best.
The best level to short here is 1.6776 while the lower level at 1.6758 is valid but is much riskier. The same goes for a long from 1.6728 while the safer potential long from the lows at 1.6700 less risky.
Gold seems to be waiting as well so I will be leaving it alone for now. I sort of expect another beat down so they can load up at lower prices but if the USD does weaken then it may rise a bit. The best levels haven’t changed since yesterday so they are all still valid.
Forex News Today
The news releases start with UK Nation Wide House prices expected to drop on the monthly figures but remain the same for the yearly. I have my doubts these will do much barring a big surprise. At this point housing data in the UK should remain flat or even get better until they stop the help to buy scheme. Later is Construction PMI expected flat as well. This does have a chance to surprise but only if the purchasing managers are thinking they will end the help to buy sooner rather than later.
The Euro Zone has CPI data that could be big on a large miss. However only if the monthly data goes close to or below zero. This will spark more deflation thoughts and possibly get the ECB to act sooner than some think.
The US has Factory Orders but I don’t expect much unless it misses big here either.
Asian session traders need to watch Aussie GDP figures tomorrow morning. As long as its close things will go as normal but a big miss will most likely a big move.
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