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Looking For Continued Euro Weakness – 3/2/16 Daily FX Analysis

March 01
23:42 2016

Looking For Third EUR/USD Push Down

The Euro stalled out today after giving the second push to the downside the day prior. For today I will continue to look for the third push to the downside. Like yesterday, we only have one upper manipulation point that I will be looking for this push to occur from. Like always, cycle bias means absolutely nothing without getting a stop run of a high probability manipulation point. Additionally I would consider a backside stop run short off of yesterday’s lows if we were to just break lower. 

EUR/USD Chart - March 2nd 2016

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Pound Carves Wide Range

The analysis of the GBP/USD is rather simple as we don’t have a cycle bias and therefore we have manipulation points listed to both sides of the price like usual. Our upper levels are rather limited with only one upper point from which I would consider a valid stop run short. To the downside we have 2 listed points. It is also worth mentioning that a backside short off of our first lower level would be valid as well if we were to break below it.

GBP/USD Chart - March 2nd 2016

Forex Market News For March 2nd 2016

UK Construction PMI 4:30 AM Eastern: Construction PMI is a pretty big market mover with a 50/50 chance of seeing continuation on the spike. Smaller deviation tend to have a higher probability of reversing the spike but even some of the larger deviation from the expected number have been reversed as well. It is worth noting that Construction PMI has been steadily declining and a big miss to the downside could be exaggerated with the already weak Pound. For this month 55.5 is the expected number.

US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 8:15 AM Eastern: US ADP has reversed the spike almost every time there is a sizable deviation from the expected number. With that being said, for those of you who trade the news this is a very undesirable event to be chasing the spike as it has historically been a trap. For this month 190K is the expected number.



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