March 24th 2014 Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis
With the EUR/USD not making the third push Friday it leaves it more open for the failed second push but I will still have the bias for the short today until it potentially holds this chop for today and if that happens I will be more open for the long tomorrow. The issue is that price staying in a 45 pi range shows they may be losing interest in the next push down. If they do find reason to have more conviction to the strength of the Euro or USD weakness they wont make that third push. Having said that what are getting from the Fed does support the USD strength for the time being. Unless of course equities take a hard tumble and then all bets are off considering that what the Fed has been doing with QE over the last 5 years is support the stock market. This has a higher probability of continuing barring an epiphany from Janet Yellen and the Fed. Im not holding my breath but it is surely possible.
The best levels are rather simple to find today with Fridays highs at 1.3809 and lows at 1.3765 being most probable. I will prefer to get the short from the highs but will be open for the long either from 1.3765 if they show they just wont let it pass or test the overall lows at 1.3748 with a stop run with no opportunities to short during London and they do so during the NY session. If we do get the conviction above Fridays highs during the London session I will be more open for the long either at a test of Fridays highs for a backside entry or the Asia H/L depending on the push of the conviction.
The GBP/USD made absolutely no attempt to make the reversal Friday but with this gap down this morning it increases the chance of the fake out and we may get it today. I will be open on direction today looking to take the long from any manipulation at the gap lows while open for the short around 1.6516 or even better the 1.6520 psych level just above. If we do get conviction below the gap low I will be bias for the short and look to the Asia highs or Fridays lows to short from.
Forex News Today
The only significant data releases today are during the London session with French, German and Euro Zone Manufacturing and Services PMI figures. As usual the German numbers will have the most impact on a decent size miss unless the French data manages to jump above the 50 expansion level. I have my doubts that will happen but its possible. Otherwise seeing a big surprise from either the German or EZ numbers will have the most impact. I think they will be close to expectations and have a higher probability of disappointing but it would be the first or even third time I have been wrong with data releases 🙂
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