March 5th 2014 Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis
The EUR/USD didn’t make the second push I expected yesterday but having only moved the 50+ pips and closing rather close to the open shows they didn’t have much faith that Putins move to recall troops will tame the war drums. Of course it didn’t help that the US was still keeping the rhetoric up at escalating levels. I will still have the bias for the short today since there was nothing in yesterdays price action showing they have changed their intentions regarding the first push down.
The best level I see for a short is 1.3763 but if they want to get stops they will run them to yesterdays highs. If we do get the conviction move below yesterdays lows during the London session then I will look at the 1.3744 level for the short or possibly Mondays lows if the move down is large enough. I will still be open for a long today but I in order to change the bias I want to see them make the move to the upside during the Asian session and run stops to the yesterdays lows with the trapping patterns during a one hour stop run getting a good entry and watching for any conviction below yesterdays lows.
The GBP/USD had similar movement yesterday running up to the 1.6700 level before being rejected closing around its open also so I will be keeping the bias for the short here again as well. The best levels I see are at 1.6678 but with that being it close proximity to current price they have a good chance to push it higher to 1.6700 if they are going to finish the second push today. I will also be open for the long with a stop run to yesterdays lows at 1.6639 since the probability of getting the second push has gone down a little since they didn’t have the conviction yesterday. The daily level at 1.6651 is also valid for the long but I will want to see them run the breakout traders if they don’t widen the Asian range.
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Forex News Today
The calendar starts off with Services PMI data from the big four European countries but barring a big miss these shouldn’t do much. Then the UK Services PMI data comes out being a high impact event I will watch for a clear set up on the GU before the release. Expectations are for a small drop so a small miss shouldn’t do much with it still being well above the 50 level. If there is a big miss to the downside we should see some GBP weakness but most likely seen mostly in the EUR/GBP. Later is Euro Zone GDP figures. I doubt there will be much of a surprise with some better data coming out from them lately. If it does miss below zero again then the Euro will weaken as the technical point of recession is realized. They also have Retail Sales data so if we get a mixed bag of good and bad misses there probably wont be much movement.
The US had ADP non farm payrolls expected to drop yet again. My thoughts are there is a better chance for a miss to the downside with no significant improvements coming from US data. Even if it does surprise to the upside I highly doubt it will create a sustained move. It would take something to the effect of rising above the last print of 175K to do that. Later is the ISM Non Mfg. PMI data also expecting a drop showing more weakness in the US economy. If it does miss to the downside along with negative other data they may start to think the Fed will taper the taper but that we will have to wait and see. I am starting to think the Fed is looking at their balance sheet knowing they really need to reduce it rather than build it now. Time will tell.
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