Massive Non-Farm Payroll Selloff – November 9th 2015 Forex Analysis
Upcoming Investors Underground Webinar @ 6PM This Wednesday November 11th 2015
Before we get into today’s commentary I wanted to let everyone know we are doing a free webinar this Wednesday November 11th @ 6 PM Eastern. This webinar is going to be run by Cam from Investors Underground. If your unfamiliar with them they have the #1 product on Investimonials out of over 10,000 reviews and they are the #1 largest online trading room. You don’t get to have their following without putting out solid information
I have known Cam for years which is the only reason our readers are getting this free webinar. They never do free webinars for anyone so this is going to be a treat! While they are US equity market traders I would highly recommend attending as much of the information has a cross correlation to the forex market. Even if you cannot attend I would still recommend registering for the webinar. At this point I will more than likely not be sending the recording to anyone not registered. Here is the link to save your seat for the webinar…
EUR/USD Tanks 150 Pips on NFP Release
A much better than expected NFP release causes a 150 pip drop in the EUR/USD in less than 40 seconds. Today’s market commentary is going to be rather simple and straight forward because of the NFP move. If you read last Friday’s market analysis you will know we were looking for the third push to the downside in the Euro. While we did get that move, we never had any interaction with the upper manipulation point that we were looking to take the continuation from. As such Friday did not produce a valid trade. Because the EUR/USD completed its third push on Friday, we go back to trading without a directional bias.
Whenever we get massive move as we did Friday, that will always leave us with limited levels to trade from. At this point I only have one lower manipulation point I would consider a stop run long from, and one upper manipulation point I would consider a short setup from if a valid stop run occurred.
The Pound Takes The ‘One Two’ Knockout Punch
With negative news out of the UK and Positive news out of the US, the GBP/USD took a hard two punch combo towards the end of the week. The price action to the downside was absolutely nasty for any with a long bias or position. Going into Friday I had an open directional bias even with the previous days push down. You can go back and read the Friday market analysis for further information on why. Going into the NFP release our lower manipulation points had already been broken and no trade setup was produced. This is exactly what we want to see when the market is not going to hold at our listed levels. If a stop run does not occur then the setup/level becomes invalid and we wait for the next level to be hit. Since the GBP/USD broke into fresh territory we did not have a level to take a trade from and thus I stayed out of the market.
Like the Euro, I will also keep an open directional bias in the GBP/USD for today. Its important to remember that we are day trading short term market fluctuations from liquidity points, and we are not trading long term directional bias. As such the overall bias may be clear to one side or the other but the short term bias can still be open to trading both directions. With as large of a move as we have had to the downside, a stop run of the lower manipulation point could provide a beautiful long setup to day trade a short term market reversal. While the move may only go 60 or 70 pips the opposite direction, that is more than enough for us to take a full profit and walk away. The only issue I see with the Pound is the lack of manipulation points. At this point I only have one lower and one upper manipulation point I would look to trade from.
Forex News For November 11th 2015
No news during our active trading hours that I would be concerned about.
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