May 22, 2013 EUR/USD, GBP/USD Commentary
As you may have noticed the commentary is out quite early today. I have an important meeting on another island today so will be boarding a boat in a couple hours and didn’t want to have to load it from my laptop so its going to be short and to the point.
We have our second push on the EUR/USD and will be looking for the third today. I am concerned that we didn’t see the hourly close above 1.2929 or even better 1.2941 but when is it ever perfect. Never the less my bias will be for the long but I will be cautious since the levels aren’t that great and easily seen. The one I can see that has had the best previous reactions is the 1.2895 level. However the proximity to current price concerns me. I would rather see it push up in Asia and come back and test during London and see the manipulation then. Otherwise it may test all the way down to 1.2880 or so before it goes off today. We do have the Helicopter Ben testifying before Congress today so anything is on the table.
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The GBP/USD gives me more reason to be concerned on direction because it has a push down while the Euro has the push up. Being a first or possible second push scenario makes it even more difficult to gauge direction here. Therefore I will be keeping my mind open on direction and waiting for an hourly conviction close to give me some more clarity. The best case scenario is a close below 1.5145 during the London session after a push up during Asia and I will be bias for the short. Otherwise a stop run to the highs during the US session yesterday and I will be happy to short there also. If we see the hourly close above 1.5189 and she is most likely headed north.
Forex News Today
The calendar is littered with big news today starting with the MPC Meeting minutes for the UK released at the same time as their retail sales figures. Of course barring a big miss on Retail Sales the MPC Minutes will be what takes the show. If there is any hints of more Asset Purchases the GBP will weaken which is the better scenario the way I see it. The talk of slowing has been less lately but as I have said many times nothing, surprises me these days.
The Euro Zone has a German 10yr bund auction. This is usually insignificant but its getting more important these days due to France and Germany feeling a bit of the poison from the koolaid. If the interest paid ticks up substantially (of which I doubt) then the Euro will weaken across the board.
The US has Existing Home Sales that will probably be a non event without a big surprise. Ben testifies to congress and as I mentioned in yesterdays commentary I expect this to be the same line he used at the last press release that they are ready to act in either direction. It should be interesting though. Later is the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes but unless there is something that wildly varies from his testimony and the press release from the FOMC meeting then this will be a non event.
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