May 27th 2014 Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold Analysis
I hope everybody enjoyed the long weekend.
The EUR/USD has an early push during the Asian session this morning extending yesterdays short move for a first push to the upside. I admit its a little short but I will be treating it as the first push with a small bias to get the second today. Having said that there is the potential for this to be a fake out before a bigger drop during the London session today. The best level I see for a long is at 1.3635 but with the Asian range wide enough early on there is a good chance they will stop it at the Asian lows of 1.3641 if they intend to make the next short push or just finish out this one as a cleaner first push running it to 1.3683 where I will also be open for the short from. I should also mention that yesterdays highs have potential for the long as well but I expect they will want to push the Asian weak holders out and will at least test the Asian lows before pushing up today. The best level for a short is above current price at 1.3683 where the hourly 200 EMA sits but if they hold price below the current Asian highs and show manipulation during a test during London I will be open for the short there as well but will need a great set up since taking entries in the middle of last weeks third push carries more risk..
The GBP/USD had the same pop upward this morning. The word is that the USD weakness is caused by a slew of US data coming up and I suspect maybe they have gotten early releases as usual. Technically we are still expecting the third push down today since we have two clear pushes last week. However we also had a failed second push last week as well leaving it questionable we will get the third push down today. It seems they are still confused on which way they are willing to push and cautious on running any plan to finish out a three push move. Considering all this I will be open on direction on this pair with the slight bias to get the third push. The best level for the short is just above the current highs at 1.6872. The best potential long is around the lows at 1.6818 but since they have widened the Asian range the Asian lows at 1.6834 are valid. Again a trade there will carry higher risk and will need to be screaming entry for me to go long there.
Taking a look at the daily chart of gold it has compressed to where it almost has no choice but to make a break from the triangle it has held for almost two months. When price compresses to this extent the first break is more often false before the next big move in the opposite direction but the dynamics of gold are that much different than currencies that the first break could be the big move as well. The safest entries will be at the ranges I have lined out at the highs for a short and the lows for a long. I will be more cautious if price reaches the lows due to the hourly wicks below that show where they have potential to push price again.
Forex News Today
The calendar is rather bare during the London session today but picks up in the NY session with US Durable Goods Orders and later CB Consumer Confidence with a sprinkle of an ECB Super Mario speech in between. Considering the housing data of late in the US they have set the bar pretty low on Durable Goods. I think it has a higher probability of a disappointment but with the bar set this low it should be close. Consumer Confidence is expecting a slight improvement so the potential for a miss to the downside is higher here as well considering the negative US data lately.
As we all know Mario Draghi could surprise with anything but with Europe needing a weaker Euro and the elections over the weekend not favoring the Euro I expect he might actually defend the Euro right now but even if he does and it does gain strength it wont last long.
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