May 6, 2013 EUR/USD, GBP/USD Daily Commentary
Looking at the price action on the EUR/USD this Monday morning its hard to tell if we have a second push or a rejected first push. I surely expected that the better than expected employment data would have at least made a clear push but it didn’t get a close beyond Thursdays lows so it leaves it in doubt at this point. Needless to say I wont be treating this as a second push trading opportunity but I will have a small bias for the short. The fact is the move down is for well over 100 pips but the higher high it made after that leaves the push questionable to say the least. It sure seems that they wont let price get below the daily 200 EMA at this point in fear that once it does the drop could be substantial. Having said that who really knows what the heck those boneheads are thinking. We will never really know so there is no point pounding my head on my desk to try and figure it out.
The levels for a potential short really aren’t that great with the 1.3130 in rather close proximity. The 1.3145 seems a bit better but also has a daily high just above at 1.3158 so the manipulation will need to be clear at those levels and if the Asian high shows potential I would prefer to see them play the breakout traders o the lows first with a tight Asian range. The levels for a long really aren’t that pretty either with the hourly 200 EMA at 1.3095 not getting much respect as of late and the 1.3077 level over 40 pips away at the moment. The 4 hour 200 has potential but I would prefer to be taking profit on a short if it got there.
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The GBP/USD is in the same sort of situation and looks like it has more potential to be stuck in this 125 pip range for awhile as they make up their mind on where to go with it. The other possibility is we have a false push down and the start of a 3 push move to the upside. We will know more after today so I will be keeping my mind open on direction for this pair. The levels aren’t so great here either with the 1.5589 and 1.5600 levels being the best for potential shorts and 1.5552 and 1.5540 for potential longs. If the Asian range widens up nicely before the London open like it has started and we get an hourly close above Thursdays high of 1.5589 during the London session I will have a bias for the long and look for the manipulation to the downside.
Forex News Today
There is not much on the calendar today that is high impact. There is Services PMI figures from Italy France Germany and EZ but I doubt there will be much reaction unless the German figures pop above 50. The big one for the day is a Super Mario speech at the beginning of the US session. He could spew any nonsense as usual or he could actually tell the truth and send the Euro to its grave but I highly doubt that. Probabilities are to the contrary.
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