NFP Disappoints-Unemployment Rate Drops. Go Figure Nov. 10, 2014
Non Farm Down at 214K. Unemployment Rate Drops?
This may be beating a dead horse since myself and many others have pointed out the farcical numbers we call Non Farm Payrolls and more so the Unemployment rate. However one thing I thought was comical about the details of the report is that of the 683,000 jobs actually created while 469,000 were lost in October the overwhelming number of those jobs went to young women aged 16-24. Once we look at the charts from the BLS it leaves no doubt where these again part time jobs went. I leave you with the charts and no comment. Interesting US recovery huh?
EUR/USD Rejects lows hitting stops on NFP
At this point the pushes on the EUR/USD have become less clear with the rejection to the upside after NFP Friday. Its still possible that they make a large third push but with the over extension and valid push upwards they may also run the next push higher as well. They are working on closing the gap upward this morning and if the Friday close holds through Asia it becomes a valid level at the Asian lows for the long entry today. Otherwise I will consider the long from 1.2436 if the 1.2454 don’t hold and they leave the Asian box closer to the lows going into London. I will also be open for the short from the 1.2469 daily high but will need a clear set up and good entry because if they want stops they will push above the Asian highs.
GBP/USD Also Shows Strength Hitting Stops to the lows
The GBP/USD had relatively the same move as the Euro Friday even if it did show more weakness before the NFP release. It also has a valid first intraday push upward and took stops below the days lows before making the push. This does increase the potential for the second push as with the Euro but to be on the safe side I will be more open on direction today. With it already closing the gap and making a move north I will be watching for conviction to show this morning and then be confirmed with a set up during London at either Fridays highs or close. If the daily level holds it lower this morning then its a valid level to short from during London but I would be happier if they extend the Asian lows a bit and leave the Asian box toward the lower end.
EUR/JPY Still Potential for Second Push Down
The 77 pip range on the EUR/JPY Friday does show the they didn’t have much interest in the second push down but it also didn’t make any sort of decent push up either still leaving the higher probability for the move down today. I will have a slight bias for the push down while willing to take the long from 142.34 this morning as long as they are pushing the Yen around and the other crosses agree. The USD/JPY has hit its level but not helping as of yet. Otherwise I will be open for the short from the Asian highs or just above at 142.90 during the London session.
Forex News Today
The economic calendar is pretty much dead today so barring a tape bomb or two we may not get much pushing around. There is a Fed member speech late in the day along with some UK Retail Sales data after. Neither should do too much unless the Feds Rosengren pulls another Bullard QE event.
My apologies for the broken video of INSIDE JOB in the commentary. I didnt think I was copy write infringing with an Italian version already on youtube. However you can still watch its at this link. Still a must SEE!
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