No Deal With Greece Yet Feb. 12, 2015
Meeting Between Greece And The European Commission Unfruitful
First we get a “we have agreed on a deal in principal” and we got the spike mentioned in yesterdays commentary. Then of course comes the Greeks with “there is no deal”. It didnt happen quite like I expected but never the less the same movement on getting hopes up and then seeing them crushed. I am a bit surprised that we didnt hear more of a Russian proposal which probably means the Russians want something the Greeks arent willing to give up either, maybe something like a naval base, which would most likely never happen.
Its hard to say who will be giving in first but it does look more like both the European Union and Greece share common ground on one thing. Both are sitting between a rock and a hard place.
EUR/USD Not Budging Until Somebody Gives In
The EUR/USD is still holding the range and is more likely to stay there until there is a solid agreement with the Greek situation. Otherwise we will be getting these rumors only to be throw out moments later. Personally I wont be believing anything until I see them sitting down and signing papers somewhere. The levels havent changed much other than a higher low for a potential long. The extremes will be the most probable but testing them on a tape bomb is not tradeable for me.
GBP/USD Makes Push Up From Range
Although I will be considering this a first push on the GBP/USD I will also be a bit more open to short from the highs if there is no long set up today. The rejection from the highs starting well before the Greek debacle and the lower close does say they are playing it safe more than running a plan and I cant say I blame them with whats been going on recently. The safer trade will be to play the range even though I consider the long more probable for the simple reason is they really do have to do something to at least attempt to hold the EU together. The best level for a long will be around 1.5224. Otherwise I will consider a short from the highs of 1.5297 as long as the test is not on a Greek deal rumor.
EUR/JPY Runs First Push Up
The EUR/JPY also made a first push up but being much cleaner will be the pair I prefer to trade today. Its looking good for the set up at 135.76 but I will need a candle or two more for it to complete and get the entry. If It dont set up or I miss the entry then I will look at the Asian lows for the set up during London. Again I will be open for the short at the highs as well.
Forex News Today
The calendar starts early today but dont have a ton of news either. First is German CPI data expected flat but still below the zero level. I dont expect much from this but will look to see if they test the range on a miss. Baring any Greek deal they most likely wont be breaking out today.
The UK has their Inflation Report and Carney speech so this could easily get the GBP moving. If he does talk about deflation in a serious manner than they might think he will boost the Asset Purchases and send the GBP down.
The US has Retail Sales data expected to be slightly better but below the zero mark. Any disappointment probably wont weaken the USD unless its really big but a rise above zero will likely cause more USD strength.