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Non-Farm Payroll Number Breakdown – 9/8/2015 FX Commentary

September 08
04:05 2015

Non-Farm Payroll has produced very predictable moves in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD over the last 9 months when a clear deviation from the expected number is hit. Last Friday’s number was anything but clear. I feel bad for all the retail trades chasing the market on “negative” news only to get stopped out shortly there after. The trouble with trading the initial number is the revision is always a wild card and Friday was no exception. While the headline number was roughly -40K worse than expected, the revision to last months number was +30K in addition to a better than expected Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings. 

The bottom line is these numbers are a joke and everyone knows it. Who are they trying to kid with a 5.1% unemployment rate? Its sad when everyone knows the most influential economic indicator is a joke. Lets start with the fact that the sample size is extremely small. Next, it is done on paper that needs to be filled out and returned rather than electronically. Not only is the sample size small but not everyone who is suppose to be included responds. The margin for manipulation accidental error is tremendous. The bottom line is trading the price action is the key because trading pure economic data is downright foolish. On to today’s market.

EUR/USD Continues Trapped

Just as I started to write this the EUR/USD began surging to the upside. I’m not really surprised by the move considering the how the GBP/USD responded yesterday. The key point to take away is that I think this may be more of a short term move as the overall direction and momentum is heavily to the downside on both pairs and it is going to take more than a 24 hour move to change that fact.

Friday the EUR/USD provided a beautiful stop run of the lows after the NFP news release. While economic data (Especially out of the US) is generally a scam, the volatility and stop runs that occur around them are often quite profitable. For those of you who are members make sure to watch today’s video preview for a full break down of the trade setup. Today I will still remain open on direction and take any valid setup from one of the pre-selected manipulation points.

EUR/USD Chart - September 8th 2015

GBP/USD Surges On Low Volume

The Pound has for the first time in a long time provided a clear enough move for me to trade it directionally for at least today. Today I will only be looking for the second push to the upside. Its extremely important to understand that we still need to see a valid trade setup from one of the pre-selected manipulation points in order to actually trigger the long.

If we do run a clean 3 push cycle to the upside I do believe that it will be just as quickly retraced. The reason is that I’m not extremely sold on the long for the GBP/USD even though the price action supports. First, the COT made one of the largest shifts we have seen in a very long time and the Asset class in the COT report just hit its largest Pound short position since the beginning of 2012. Second is the timing of yesterday’s move up. I was thinking why such an aggressive move, and then it made since. Yesterday was a holiday market with much lower liquidity and thus, what a great time to drive the market long only to smash it down. For today I will be long biased but I have a feeling this may not go a full 3 push cycle to the upside before breaking down. Time will tell.

GBP/USD Chart - September 8th 2015

Forex News For September 8th 2015

One of the rare days where there is no substantial news that I would worry about. As always have live squawk based on is while trading is a wise choice. If you looking for a quality service at an entry level price then google Talking-Forex and subscribe to them. If your serious about trading it will be the best $30 bucks a month you’ll spend.


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