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Non Farm Payrolls Beat, Unemployment Rate drops. What is wrong with this picture?

October 06
00:53 2014

Much better NFP and the Unemployment Rate goes below 6%

Last Fridays jobs data looks great on the surface even though its still well below the 300-400k jobs a month the US needs to even think a recovery is in the works. Its the fine print that looks very suspicious when looked at closely. However that seems to be the norm these days with any good data. As long as the headline looks good they will push trying to make it look as though all is well.

Here are a couple of quotes from Zero Hedge over the weekend to shed some light on that great NFP report. Its interesting how the fine print means everything. “the September data confirmed that the whopping surge in jobs… was thanks to your “grandparentsthose in the 55-69 age group, which comprised the vast majority of the job additions in the month, at a whopping 230K. This was the biggest monthly jobs increase in the 55 and over age group since February! What about the prime worker demographic, those aged 25-54 and whose work output is supposed to propel the US economy forward? They lost 10,000 jobs.”

4 of the top 5 largest job additions in September, retail trade, leisure and hospitality, education and health and temp help, were of the lowest quality, and paying, jobs possible. So yes, America added a whole lot of minimum wage waiters, store clerks, groundskeepers and temps: truly the stuff New Normal “recoveries” are made of.  The USD gets whooping strength across the board as the Dollar Index makes a run toward 2010 highs it is likely to test in coming weeks.

On to the charts.


There isn’t much we can say about the EUR/USD today. With the almost 200 pip move from the highs and testing the next most significant daily level there is a good chance for a reversal. Having said that there also don’t seem to be much interest in pushing it upward at the moment. If they can widen the Asian range this morning and show a clean set up at 1.2523 I will be willing to short but more probabilities add up for the long today. The inefficient move, daily level, potential 3 in 1 move in favor of the long while the directional push and fake out on Thursday helping a short.

EU 1hr chart


The GBP/USD has a similar move but being the second push on Friday. Too bad there wasn’t a clear set up Friday as this pair had the higher probability for the short. There is also the potential for the 2 in one move and reversal so I will be open for the long from a stop run to the lows. However if they are going to do a third push down there are better levels to run to than the Euro. For starters the 1.5985 daily low is just about where we want a pullback to if the end of NY highs don’t hold. If we see the conviction I will just look to short most likely from the Friday lows. If they do break it down they will likely test the ADR and another significant daily low at 1.5852.

GU 1hr chart


This pair didnt have the move Friday which shows the move wasn’t risk but USD related as the USD/JPY had one heck of a rally running to test close to recent highs. As far as this morning goes there hasn’t been anything all that clear but the level at 137.41 has good potential. I don’t necessarily have a strong bias since it has gone into the third push chop again although it does have a first push upward. At this point it looks more like a fake out since the guys in London and NY sessions didn’t agree with the move on Friday adding more probability for the fake out during the Asian session. There is also the fact of the UJ hitting the recent yearly highs it will need to break for a move upward on the EJ to continue for the second push.

I will be open for the long at 137.15 although the 137.23 is valid it will need to show the manipulation on all pairs to be convincing. Otherwise they should test lower. If they do by chance show the conviction to the downside without a test of 136.95 I will look to short from 137.15 or 23. If they do manage to test the lows with no entry short on a pullback I will be open for the long there as well.

EJ 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The calendar is rather dead today with only German Factory Orders early at the Frankfurt open. Expected to drop into negative figures showing that Germany is feeling the pain so they may push the Euro weaker if close to as expected. If it disappoints then the chance goes up even more since it sure looks as though Germany isn’t budging much on letting the ECB go full print/finance Governments mode like the Fed has done.

The only other news on tap is for Loonie or Aussie traders with Ivey PMI for Canada and the rate decision for the Aussie during Asia tomorrow. It would be best to be in a trade and holding at break even to trade the Aussie through a rate decision. They have a tendency to surprise more than other central banks I have seen.

Happy Trading


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