November 5th 2013 Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis
The EUR/USD made the reversal I expected even though it really don’t look all that convincing. The fake out during the Asian session was interesting to say the least. There was not anything clear enough to take the entry during the London session but there was a nice entry for the New York reversal. Good job to the members who caught that trade. If you held it through the night then it has a good chance of making a nice run today for at least 40+ pips.
Today I will be bias for the next push to the upside looking to see them test the four hour 200 ema. I will be open for this being a false push but will want to see some pretty clear trapping at yesterdays highs during the London session in order to change my bias. Of course once we see any conviction above yesterdays high it will solidify the bias for the long. Once that happens the Asian lows will be the first place I look for the long. However the potential for them pushing as low as 1.3492 or even 1.3477 is good too if the Asian stays in this tight range.
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The GBP/USD made a much clearer first push with a nice stop run during the Asian session and continued push up during the London session. Here my bias will be a bit stronger to seethe next push up. The possibility of the false push is still there but with the GBP being the stronger currency compared to the Euro the probability is higher we will get the second push today. Since we are seeing the Asian range extend a bit this morning the Asian lows I where I will start to look for the long but want to see the breakout traders played if price leaves the Asian box closer to the highs. If we get the conviction move above during London then the Asian lows have a higher probability. Otherwise the better level will be at 1.5940 to see a stop run if yesterdays highs hold and price leaves the Asian box closer to its lows.
Forex News Today
The only significant news scheduled today is UK Services PMI data. Expectations are for a slight drop so barring a large miss we probably wont get much other than some manipulation if it misses small. Otherwise there is a Super Mario Draghi speech also so keep an eye on any tape bombs then.
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