October 1st 2014 Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY Analysis
The Euro ended the month with a bang yesterday dropping and closing below the daily/monthly low from November 2012 around 1.2663 showing us they have no interest in pushing upward on the end of month flows. In short the Euro is weak and will probably remain so in the near term. Of course that is not how we build a bias on direction but like I have heard members say. I wont be holding any Euro longs for big moves for awhile.
We do have a first push down now so I will have a bias for the short today but the best level at 1.2635 is too close to current price unless they drop it down during the Asian session today. Otherwise they will more than likely test up to 1.2663 and close the inefficient move before another push to the downside today. I will be open for the long at 1.2587 since it is the first push but would much rather be short if it reaches there and waiting for the break down. I should also mention that with the ECB coming up tomorrow there is a decent chance that they don’t move it much today but then again the same applied yesterday and to be honest I don’t think the miss on the Core CPI data is enough to cause the push they made or that is enough to make Super Mario go full retard just yet. However I will also say, I have been wrong before 🙂
The GBP/USD made its typical set up before the news and made a nice push blowing its ADR for a 120 pip move. Congrats to the members who didn’t get whipped by the spike and were able to hold the trade for a good chunk of the move. Good job guys. The ones that did get popped just before the move shouldn’t feel bad either. Take comfort in the fact that you followed your plan and move on to the next trade. You deserve a pat on the back as well because the plan is most important and we wont catch every move.
At this point I consider this the third push on the GU and we should expect a reversal but seeing that it has already pulled back 63 pips from the lows does open it up for extended pushes as well. The best level to take the long is at 1.6178 but is a bit more risky with the daily lows 12 pips away. Its also rather far from current price so if they do move there I would rather be short waiting for the break. The safest place for the short is up at yesterdays highs but the daily level at 1.6217 is valid along with 1.6229. The daily level has been beat up a bit so it seems more likely that they will push to 1.6229 if they want to push it down today. Having said all that there is higher risk taking entries in the middle of a third push so I will need something very clear and low risk to take an entry not at the extremes today.
The EUR/JPY finally made the drop I wanted after holding my short from Monday. I did close it manually for 68 pips due to the lack of cooperation from the UJ and I had to leave the office right after the training room. I didn’t see the miss on the CPI data as good enough to create a sustained move even though it eventually did hit my profit target at 138.10. No worries it was still a great trade getting almost three times my risk in profit. Congrats to the members who hung on and gave the trade a chance to make the move.
Today I will be bias for the short on the first push down with the best level being at 138.57. Since they have already made an attempt to get there during Asia this morning the Asian highs may be all they run to during the London session if it don’t just run off without me. The 138.65 level is also valid so if they want to run stops they will likely test that so getting a good entry with my stop above there will be best. Otherwise I will be open for the long at the 138.02 daily level but would rather be short waiting for the break on the second push.
Forex News Today
The calendar is a bit busier today starting with Manufacturing PMI data from Spain, Italy, France, Germany and the EZ. Most are expected to be flat but with many of them hovering around the 50 mark all it will take is Germany or the EZ figures to drop below and that would be enough to create a sustained move on Euro weakness. Otherwise baring a big disappointment we wont see much considering the ECB is on tap tomorrow.
The UK also has Manufacturing PMI data released a half hour later. Its also expected flat and is still well above 50 and will take a large miss to create a decent move. Of course I will be watching for the set up before but I have my doubts its going to miss big enough.
The US has ADP Nonfarm today expected to rise a bit. As long as it dont miss big they will wait for the ECB or even Fridays bigger NFP figures. A bit later is the ISM Manufacturing PMI expected to drop slightly but being well above 50 it will take a big miss to create a move if they dont push after the ADP release.
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