October 7th 2015 Forex Market Analysis And September Trade Results
I just finished loading the trade analysis video for the month of September. I have not had time to create a post yet so the link for the September video will take you to YouTube. If you did not get a chance to look at yesterday market analysis I posted the video for August yesterday. I had been waiting on a new microphone and I finally got it last week which is why the August video was so late. September trading for us was quite boring overall. On just the EUR/USD and GBP/USD we average around 20+ trades per month with some months like July being around 30 trades on just those two pairs. September had just 10 trades on those two pairs which is less than half of the average. Last month illustrates the resilience of the bank trading strategy quite clearly as well. Even during a month where we have far less trades and a lower winning percentage the strategy still is able to produce a profit. Does that mean we will always produce a profit every single month. Of course not, and anyone who says they are guaranteed to be profitable every month is flat out lying. The only guarantee in trading is that there are no guarantees. It does however illustrate the power of high reward to risk trading strategies and their ability to maintain through less than idea conditions. If my worst case scenario is a slight profit or break even then I will take that as a worst case scenario every day of the week.
Euro Bounces Off Lower Trendline
The EUR/USD made a strong bounce off of a lower trendline that has been steadily stepping the price to the upside. I have very mixed feelings on the Euro today which is why I will continue to keep my directional bias open and trade any valid stop run from a pre-selected manipulation point. The reason I feel mixed on the Euro is two fold. Right now the GBP/USD has surged through previous major highs and has given what looks to be a first push to the upside. While the Euro has bounced as well, it looks to be forming what I term an inverse trend channel as you can see in the additional 4H chart I have included below. Typically this type of chart formation breaks in the direction of the previous major move which would be to the downside and thus why I will leave directional bias open.
GBP/USD Surges Through Major Highs
Currently the Pound is still above the major resistance that was broken earlier today. As of right now we look to have a first push to the upside and thus I will only be looking for the continued push up today. Every time we have a directional market bias I always stress the point that market cycle is NOT a reason to take an entry. Market cycle simply gives us our directional bias for the day. To take an entry we still need to see the market come into the pre-selected manipulation point and produce a valid confirmation entry. If your a member make sure to watch tonight’s video preview for a further break down on the possibility of a new level forming if the first and only level we currently have breaks without producing a valid trade setup.
Forex News For October 7th 2015
UK Manufacturing & Industrial Production 4:30 AM Eastern: Even though most websites that list forex news only have Manufacturing Producing market as critical, Industrial Production is just as important if not more important. Over the last 6 months when we have a conflict between these two numbers Industrial production has more directional pull. It is important to note that the directional pull I’m referring to is when both pieces of economic data deviate equally. If one produces a much larger deviation from the expected number then the larger deviation will more than likely win. This month Manufacturing Production is expected at .5 and Industrial Production is expected at .3
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