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Pound Surges On Future BOE Rate Hike – July 15th 2015

July 15
04:28 2015

IMPORTANT: If you didn’t see the videos posted last week that contained a review of every valid trade setup from May then go check out the post titled 2015 May Trade Analysis & Results. That was quite a popular video and I was asked to compile a video with every valid trade for the following month of June. I just finished that tonight and June produced a total of +14% profit overall. I should have that video out this week. If your not subscribed to the free email list on the front end of the site you can do so by clicking on the icon to the right that says, “do you know how the banks manipulate traders”. 

Pound Surges On Future BOE Rate Hike

Before the scheduled 7:45 AM Eastern speech scheduled this morning, Carney decided to drop a nice tape bomb on the market. Essentially what was said was, ‘the time for a BOE rate increase is drawing closer’. I guess I’m a bit confused but isn’t inflation suppose to proceed a hike in interest rates? Maybe Carney got drunk and read the UK CPI chart upside down? That’s the most logical explanation that I can think of because I’m sure he doesn’t have a better one.

UK CPI Chart - July 15th 2015

Notice how CPI has continued to slide from late 2011 to today’s latest numbers which were flat at 0. Maybe there is a booming economy in the UK that the world doesn’t know about? The more likely option is a designed collapse. Once you start to hike rates you will officially stifle any little bit of growth that may be occurring. Another option is that its another bluff and he was simply holding a long position this morning:) If you don’t remember, back in 2014 he tried a ‘rate hike is nearing’ bluff as well. It didn’t fly that time and unless he wants to be the obvious reason for a UK collapse I don’t expect it to fly this time either.

EUR/USD Retraces Most Of The Early Session Gains

With still a great deal of uncertainty in the Eurozone, the EUR/USD failed to keep any gains it had near the beginning of the day and finally closed near its lows. Overall today I will be trading the Euro the same as I was yesterday which is open on direction. The Euro did form a few new manipulation points that I will look to consider today.

EUR/USD Chart - July 15th 2015

Pound Surges On Future Rate Hike Promise

Going into the trading day yesterday we had a potential first push down and I was looking for the second push to the downside. Obviously we have a completely different market today. Today brought out a hugely important point and if your a member make sure to go watch tonight’s daily market review video for a more in depth breakdown. To summarize what I said in the video you can also go back and check out the July 13th Forex Market Analysis where I talk about what importance cycle holds. 

For those of you who are not members I have 3 exact points I selected in yesterday’s daily market review for the Pound. These were points I was going to look for a short trade to setup from. Those levels were 1.5493, 1.5522, and 1.5543. As you can see a valid confirmation entry never setup from any of the levels listed and therefore it was officially a no trade day for us. This is our protection for when cycle changes or when something happens during the day to change market direction. Cycle is only the first step and it alone is never the reason we take an entry…I cannot stress that point enough.

As far as the Pound today, I will be looking to trade both directions based on a valid setup from any of our levels. When news starts a push it has a higher probability of failing and that is the reason I’m not calling this a first push up.

GBP/USD Chart - July 15th 2015

Forex News For July 15th 2015

UK Average Earnings & Claimant Count Change 4:30 AM Eastern: As far as size of the spike, this is definitely a news event to be concerned about if you are in a Pound trade as it can spike far past 15 pips on the initial move. Between the 2 pieces of data Average Earnings looks to be more in focus. For the last few months they have been coming out in the same direction which hides which news the market is paying attention to. We did however have a month where Average Earnings were stagnant and Claimant Count Change made a decent deviation and the market did not spike much at all, but did then make a directional move in favor of Claimant Count. If both agree expect a large spike and likely follow through beyond the first move.

Eurogroup Meetings: This is an every day occurrence this week so nothing new here.

US PPI & Other US Data 8:30 AM Eastern: Because this news typically comes out with something else it is much more difficult to determine the reaction the market is actually giving it verse everything else that is coming out at that time. For the last few years we have been able to not pay much attention to US data other than Non-Farm Payroll. As we have seen over the last few months, this as well as most other US data has been getting sizeable reactions in the market even with modest deviations from the expected number. With that in mind US news is still often used as a tool to create a stop run and then reverse the price so don’t get suckered into the move unless the data is a big enough surprise to warrant it.

CAD Interest Rate Decision 10:00 AM Eastern: Obviously something you don’t want to carry a CAD position into. Even if the probability of a change is .001% its best to avoid being exposed to a rate decision. 

Janet “Piggy” Yellen Testifies 10:00 AM Eastern: If your in anything crossed with the dollar you need to pay attention when this animal speaks/oinks. 


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