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Pound Tumbles On Mixed Forex News – Forex Market Analysis 2/17/16

February 17
01:05 2016

EUR/USD Holds Range

One of the things I mentioned about the first upper manipulation point that we had listed yesterday was the fact that is was not valid at the start of the day. That is why I marked it as a red level initially. In the DTFL forex day trading course we have exact criteria for what is a valid level and what is not. These levels had not satisfied our criteria and therefore why I said we needed a push down in the price to around the 1.1145 area before it would have become valid. Because we just missed that during Asia, the first retest of the upper level would not have been valid for a stop run short. 

For today the forecast is really the same as the market stayed in a range. This leaves us with the outside of our range being our first upper and first lower manipulation point. Should we break either side I would also consider a stop run on the backside of the upper or lower level as well.

EUR/USD Chart - February 17th 2016

Pound Tanks On Mixed Forex News

Like I mentioned in yesterday’s forex analysis I had a stronger bias to the downside which does remain in place today as well. With that being said we don’t have an official market cycle according to the rules of our forex trading strategy which means we will continue to select manipulation points both above and below the price. Any time you get a aggressive move you always end up with far less manipulation points then a normal price action based move. We do however still have some backside points which will be our upper levels for today. Our lower levels are a good distance away which means they will serve as more of a reversal point after the move occurs. Overall we have two upper as well as two lower manipulation points.

GBP/USD Chart - February 17th 2016

Forex Market News For February 17th 2016

UK Average Earnings Index inc/bonus 4:30 AM Eastern: I don’t have a great deal to say about this release other than be sure to look for a conflict with the Claimant Count Change that comes out at the same time. This has been pretty much 50/50 in regards to follow through after the news in the direction of the release. Overall I think it is much more about previous bias for what the price action will do follow the data release. For this month 1.9 is the expected number.

US PPI m/m 8:30 AM Eastern: PPI has been seeing strong reversals of the spike on the last 2 releases that has a decent deviation. If we had a running stop run trade I would not hesitate to enter after the release as this is not a major trend changer. For this month .2% is the expected number.

US FOMC Meeting Minutes 2:00 PM Eastern: Obviously this is a big market mover depending on the comments that are made. I would not carry into this release as it is more than capable of a quick 15+ pip spike.


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