September 10, 2014 EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY Daily Analysis
Now that we have potentially two false pushes on the EUR/USD I will be more open on direction today. With this last push up being intraday it hasn’t negated the push down as of yet but has removed any extra bias I have due to the potential fake out to the upside before the push down. I will still be willing to short from yesterdays highs at 1.2958 providing they move price down a bit before a test during the London session. Otherwise the safest potential long is down at the lows of 1.2874 which is also the daily break out level mentioned in yesterdays commentary. The 1.2907 level is valid but much more risky for a long being in the middle of a chop.
The GBP/USD stayed relatively flat yesterday after showing the conviction during the Asian session. At this point its safer to have an open mind ion direction since we don’t have clean pushes but the lower lows and lower highs in price action does tell me the higher probability is for the break down.
Carney did more or less say that the he agrees the Scottish should not be able to use the GBP if they do go for independence but did his best to remain short of saying anything political or give any details on what it would mean for the GBP. No real surprise there.
The safest entries on this pair will also be at the extremes of yesterdays price action with 1.6157 the best level to short and 1.6065 for a long. The 1.6129 is also valid for the short but does carry more risk. In order to take an entry there I will want to see them push down and attempt a test of the lows first and manage any short entry differently since the next level is more than 20 pips away. Otherwise I will be waiting for 1.6157 to short and still be cautious with the ADR and NY/London overlap high from Monday just behind it.
The EUR/JPY did make the second push yesterday as I expected after seeing the conviction to the upside on the UJ during Asia. I would prefer to see that it pushed on the Yen rather than the Euro but I will take what I can get when expecting a third push as I am today. The best level to take the long if they are going to start the push during the Asian session is at 137.27 or just below at the four hour 200 at 137.20. I will want the UJ to agree in order to take it this morning but if it don’t give the entry early then the levels are still valid during the London session later today.
Forex News Today
The calendar is pretty much dead today so they will either let things rest and not do much of anything or moves will be more price action based rather than news driven. I suspect the former but you never know. It does seem as though there has been some slight “normalization” coming back but every time I say that they end up proving me wrong over and over. Lets hope.
Oh yea French Non farm may get some movement on a big miss but creating a sustained move on that data is unlikely.
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