September 12, 2014 Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY Analysis
There is not much to say about the EUR/USD today. Price is still stuck in the range its been in for the last week but is now compressing. They seem to have forgotten about it for now while they worry about the GBP and what Scottish independence will mean (or not). For now the best way to treat this pair is to wait for the daily highs or lows to look for a set up while being cautious of any hourly close outside the triangle forming as price compresses. I have my doubts it will make a break today but it wouldn’t surprise me if it did either. Eventually price will compress enough that it has to break in some fashion but as the range gets tighter and is forced to break the probability of the break being false goes up. Having said all that price has been beating the upper level more over the week raising the chance of a break to the upside.
The best level to go long is at 1.2896 but I will be cautious of the levels just behind there at 1.2882 and the overall lows just below that. The best short will be from 1.2950 while watching to see if it has any conviction above 1.2961.
The GBP/USD trade I took in the room yesterday just missed my take profit level by 4 pips before coming back to knock me out at break even. The drop was fast after the US unemployment data disappointed so I didnt think it was worth bailing out trying to give the trade a chance which is always in my plan. No worries, on to the next trade.
As this point the GU has three intraday pushes to the upside so it may be in for a reversal but lacking a topping formation the probability is lower. Of course everything is hinging on the Scottish vote coming up and we will likely see a poll every day from her on out so any entry I take on this pair will be treated with caution and I will be moving my stops earlier until after all this has blown over. I wont be having a bias on direction considering the three pushes. The best level for a long is down at 1.6217 or below at 1.6190 while the best place to short being the current Asian highs or just below at yesterdays high of 1.6269.
The EUR/JPY did go into extended pushes yesterday moving and closing above the daily levels around 138.26. At this point it could turn for the reversal at any time since there wanst a false push before the continuation so I will be open on direction for this pair. However with the daily conviction move it does have a higher probability of pushing up to the next daily significant level at 139.10 although there are some less significant daily levels that could hold it back. The best level to take a long today is at 138.15 while shorting from the highs yesterday is the only place I will consider a trade to the downside while keeping an eye on any potential conviction.
Forex News Today
The calendar is light today during the London session. There is some inflation data but I highly doubt it will cause any movement. We can assume there will be another poll release from Scotland so keep an eye out for that.
The US has Retail Sales and Michigan Consumer Sentiment expected to rise on both. As long as they come close or are better than expected the USD should strengthen somewhat but I expect any movement on the GU to be driven by any release of a count on the YES/NO vote.
Have a great weekend
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