September 17, 2014 EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY Analysis
The EUR/USD attempted to make a push up out of the range yesterday but got slammed down during the NY session showing they didnt have the moxy to keep it going even if the TIC data was much worse than expected for the US. Again its not enough to give us a directional bias since they could be getting the sellers out before a push up or they are keeping it below 1.2976 for a reason and intend to push down. At this point my thoughts are they are waiting for the FOMC tomorrow to see if Janet and the crew are going to change any stance going forward. Considering the Fed mouthpiece (Hilsenrath) has spoken a day early and said they are essentially in sit and wait mode I expect there wont be much said on change for the near future while some expect more hawkish language. Therefor at this point if he is correct then the EU will likely sit in this range until we get more data from the Euro Zone or more importantly Germany. Nothing seems to be getting better at the moment with the action the ECB has taken but they are also in sit and wait mode for the time being.
At this time the best levels will be at the extremes again but the 1.2939 level is valid for a long while the 1.2926 is better. The problem with the better levels is that they are far from current price which increases the probability for the more aggressive levels to get a turn but I will want to see some of the typical tricks they play before using those levels. The best level for a short is up at 1.2976 but I will need a nice set up there as well since they have shown they are willing to run to 1.2994.
The set up just before the GBP news yesterday ended up running for almost 140 pips. As I was saying in the live room even though the set up was great I dont like taking the entry on the news candle. I prefer to take the entry at least 15-30 minutes before the release while the entry on this set up was the candle that closed at release time. I did stick to my plan so all is good but it sure would have been nice to catch that move. On to the next trade.
With price moving back into the chop I wont have a bias on direction here either. It does show similar movement to the EU during the NY session so I figure they are holding it back on the Fed as well. Therefor they probably wont break it out today unless we get some big news from the Scottish vote. One more day left until the vote so things could get really choppy for now. The best level for the short will be closer to yesterdays highs considering where current price is but if they do push it down during the Asian session I will consider the 1.6275 level as well. The best long I see is at 1.6219 with the confluence of a daily and psych level but being in the middle of the range still adds risk since they could just as easily push to the next daily low or even lower.
The EUR/JPY couldn’t push beyond a 44 pip range yesterday showing less interest in any push on direction as well. I expected the intraday push down to be false as they ran it up again but with out that happening the way they will go remains in question for now. I am watching as it creeps up on yesterdays highs for the short this morning but my internet has been dodgy all morning due to the typhoon hitting Taiwan last night. My other concern is the USD/JPY isn’t really agreeing as of now but we will see. If it sets up and they are running on the Yen I will take the short. Otherwise the best long is from yesterdays lows, however if we do get conviction above yesterdays highs this morning I will consider the Asian lows for the long during the London session later today.
Forex News Today
My net has been down most of the day today so since this is so late Im going to be short and sweet.
The GBP has potential to move on the Earnings Index, Unemployment data or any change in the MPC votes but as long as they are close they will wait for the Scottish vote tomorrow.
The US has FOMC late in the day but if CPI increases significantly they may go for more USD strength today going into the Fed meeting. I have my doubts they will change anything today but its possible. If I do catch a EU or GU short I will try and hold through the meeting just in case.