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September 19, 2014 Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY Analysis

September 19
02:27 2014

The Scottish vote is NO

So its looking like the Scotts have saved the UK from total ruin if we look at the move on the GBP pairs this morning. Of course its not really over yet but the major areas have been counted so its pretty much in the bag for a NO vote and all is well. However this issue will be back in the near future. The problem is the closeness of the tally. In order for them to have this settled once and for all they would need at least a 60/40 split or preferably 70/30. A 55/45 just insures that every time the UK gets blamed for the economic woes of Scotland this will come up again and the more nationalist parties in Scotland will gain ground in local elections. Its not over yet by a long shot. On to the charts.


The EUR/USD made a sizable push to the upside retracing a good chunk of the larger move down so I will have a small bias for the next push up today but a bit more open for the short as well due to this move having a good chance of just being a flush of the weak shorts. The best level for the long will be at 1.2890 considering where current price is along with the Asian range widening early but I will be watching for the conviction to the downside being confirmed by the London session in order to take the short. If they manage to keep it below 1.2907 or 1.2890 with a clean test and trap during the London session I will be willing to short from one of those levels or the Asian highs even though I have my doubts they will push it there if the conviction is true.

EU 1hr chart


Theres not much to say about the GBP/USD this morning. Having blown the ADR and made three clean pushes I normally would expect a reversal but I have a feeling if it does pull back it will be from the daily level at 1.6530 it has almost tested this morning. If it does retrace at least 50+ pips from the current highs it will open up the door for a larger push up later today. If they can hold it up during the Asian session I will be open for the short from the highs but a pullback to 1.6448 or yesterdays highs I will be looking for the long.

GU 1hr chart


The EUR/JPY had an awesome day yesterday and is continuing to do the same early on today. I have to admit missing the entry long during the Asian session I discussed in the live training room yesterday is bothering me a bit this morning. Seeing a 15% trade that provided a great entry off a solid set up run without me is still a bit painful. I am reminded that I am still human at times like these 🙂

With the extended move I will have to be open for both directions on this pair as well today. It is approaching a solid daily break out level at 141.33 but is currently being held up by a solid daily high around 141.00. I would prefer to see a long set up at the Asian lows of 140.45 but if they are going to continue the push it probably wont get there so I will also consider 140.60 or the lows created on this pullback around 140.70-80 as long as it proves to be a place they wont let price pass. If they do manage to blow the ADR and test 141.33 I will be open for the short as long as they haven’t made the 50+ pip pullback already.

EJ 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The calendar is pretty much dead other than some Canadian news so the Loonie traders out there should keep an eye on that during the NY session. Otherwise they will likely be pushing on risk or the USD strength or weakness today. Of course the GBP pairs will be digesting the vote as well having a good chance of GBP strength but be careful of a reversal because it is extended having pushed the ADR to 114 pips now.

Have a great weekend


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  1. Cor
    Cor September 20, 14:37

    Hi Chad ,
    You mentioned 2x a pullback of 50+ pips in your commentary.Please explain why such à large pullback.


    Reply to this comment
    • Chad Tell
      Chad Tell Author September 23, 12:52

      Hi Cor

      Its because of the three pushes being finished. We should always expect a reversal of sorts after that happens. The reason is the big boys are most often taking profits to drive the market and will often try to run stops to try and force weak holders out even if they are looking to push in the same direction as the first three pushes. However if they dont care much to push them (us) out then they will only do a 50+ pip pullback and go to extended pushes. I thought that would be the case for the GU but was wrong since the USD strength kicked in and it dropped along with the EU.
      Hope this helps

      Reply to this comment

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