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September 25th 2013 Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis

September 25
03:58 2013

The EUR/USD made yet another half hearted push down yesterday going into extended short term pushes. It went off from the 1.3514 level I had marked in the commentary yesterday but with only one pin bar to the high of the day it didn’t show me there was true manipulation to take the entry. With the conviction to the downside and already testing the breakout from the Asian lows yesterday I will have a small bias for the next push down.

The best level to see the manipulation at right now is the Asian highs at 1.3480 but the proximity does concern me. If we get the conviction down after the Asian box closes I will feel better about taking the short there. If it does get the break today which I do see as the highest probability then the closing of the inefficient move will be where I look to take profit. there is the slight chance that they do a stop run to yesterdays lows and move up but the probability is low.

EU 1hr chart 9-25-2013

The GBP/USD has shown the first push up was false with a first push down now so I will have the bias for the short here today also. As it stands the best level to short from is 1.6014 but with the psych level at 1.6000 holding during Asia the stop run there may be all we get before the next push. I will be happier to see this push down a bit more and widen the Asian range but as long as price leaves the Asian box closer to the lows I will take the short at 1.6000 with a clear trap and good entry.

GU 1hr chart 9-25-2013

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Forex News Today

The calendar is light today and they are giving us a break with the Fed speak until tomorrow so we should see more plan based moves today.

The only significant release is before London opens with Gfk Consumer Climate for Germany. With the better than expected Ifo figures yesterday and no movement I expect the same from this barring a large miss which is unlikely.

Later the US has its Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales both expected to improve. I have my doubts these will have much impact unless they improve substantially more than expected and even then whether or not it makes the big boys think any taper on or off situation will arise from it is questionable. The fed is in a tough spot. With the debt ceiling and debt load the US has they seem as though they can never stop printing or the US will not be able to pay its bills. This will most likely go on until one or more of the ultra rich decide to pull their money out which could take years. Check out this Max Keiser episode and you will see why.

Happy Trading


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