September 26, 2014 Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY Analysis
The Euro did get the next push down yesterday testing just above the 1.2688 level. I will have a bias for the short on this pair but I am a little concerned its showing the bottoming formation at the lows. Having said that it also has made a 56 pip pullback from the lows so that may be all they will reverse it on what would be a very sloppy three intraday push move down considering the first intraday push is well below the ADR at only 62 pips. It is also Friday so keeping in mind the end of week flows is a good idea and being open for the long today. The levels for a potential short are tight and close to current price so it would be nice to see them widen the Asian range before testing the 1.2764 or the daily lows just above. Otherwise if they don’t turn it at yesterdays highs they will likely run up and close the inefficient move I mentioned in yesterdays commentary.The best level for the long is 1.2730 but the 1.2738 is also valid as long as they widen the range to the upside.
The GBP/USD was hit pretty hard at the London open yesterday only to recover during the NY session. I cant really say it qualifies as a push so I will be open on direction on this pair today. The best level to short is yesterdays highs at 1.6341 but could hold at a less significant level around the hourly 200 EMA if they manage to push it down during Asia this morning. If they show the conviction above yesterdays highs they will most likely push to around 1.6400. The safest level to be considering a long is the lows of 1.6282 but the psych level of 1.6300 is also valid but would need something very clear to get me long due to the next level being just at where my stop would be.
I did catch the EUR/JPY short during the Asian session yesterday. I did close it for 55 pips when it found the strong support just above the ADR. Even though I was right about the expected move down to test the next daily level I wasn’t going to risk getting hit break even after it had moved almost 80 pips in my favor so closing for more than twice my risk keeps me happy 🙂
Today we have it moving off again looking like they might go into extended pushes but the higher probability is for the reversal. If they do show conviction below yesterdays lows that will change my bias but if I can take a low risk long this morning from yesterdays lows I will take it with a clear set up and the GJ and UJ agreeing. Its testing the lows as I type but nothing is setting up yet so if they hold without giving a set up they will probably break it down. If they do the pullback to at least Wednesdays lows I will consider the short there since its a move of over 50 pips but actually hope to be long for the ride there looking to take profit.
Forex News Today
The calendar is slow again today but we do have the GFK German Consumer Climate during the London session that could get them rolling. Expectations are for a small drop so any miss of a full point or more will send them pushing the Euro around even if its just to hit stops and turn.
The US has GDP data released at the NY open expected to rise. As long as its close the USD should strengthen while it would take a bigger drop to make it weaker. Any surprise to the upside will halt any thoughts of more QE for the time being but we all know the Fed cant raise interest rates any more than the BOE can.
Have a great weekend
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