Tight Range Ahead Of US GDP – Forex Commentary 2/26/16
Tight Euro Range
Both pairs were pretty much identical today. Overall it was one of the tightest ranges we have seen in either pair. Tight ranges tend to kill the possibility for potential market cycle. For today we will continue to keep the directional bias open. Yesterday we had some really nice levels in the EUR/USD. Today, we still have some quality levels but the quantity has been reduced with quite a distance in between our listed points. The only trade option today was a stop run off of the Asian and London session lows. This stop run occurred during the NY Session and the actual confirmation entry looked very text book but I personally felt like the level was a bit more aggressive which is why I personally did not take it. Simultaneously we had a USD/CHF short which correlated nicely. Overall not a bad trade on either and a full profit result on both for anyone taking either setup.
For today I have one upper and one lower manipulation point from which I would consider any valid stop run. I think it is also important to note that if we break above the upper manipulation point I would consider a backside trade long as well.
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GBP/USD Finally Stops Falling
The analysis of the Pound is going to be rather simple and straight forward, as much of what I just mentioned about the Euro applied to the GBP/USD as well. Additionally our upper and lower levels remain the same from yesterday. At this point we will keep the directional bias open. For those of you who are members, make sure to check out tonight’s daily market analysis for further walk through of the directional cycle bias. Like the EUR/USD, we have one upper and one lower manipulation point for the GBP/USD.
Forex Market News For February 26th 2016
US Prelim GDP q/q 8:30 AM Eastern: We don’t have a great deal of historical price action around this release. In the information we do have for previous releases, we frequently deviate from the expected data. Anything release that deviates .4 +/- from the expected number has a very strong probability of not only spiking the market but also showing continued follow through in the direction of the release. With that type of deviation I would hesitate to trade against the spike. On a .2 deviation +/- from the expected number, continued follow through in the direction of the spike is a flip of the coin. For this month .5 is the expected number.