Tight Range On GBP/USD – 3/10/16 Daily Forex Analysis
Wide Range Holds On EUR/USD
I just finished the month end reviews for the month of January and February which brings us to 10 consecutively profitable months. You can find all these month end reviews under the Recent Trades tab of the site. As the DTFL trading strategy is mechanical, these month end reviews are extremely accurate. Additionally these results can all be verified by members through the month end reviews that are saved in the members area going all the way back to 2012. January and February were both right around +6% each which brings us to a compounded gain of +212% over the past 10 months. I may get the January video out this week and February will be released next week. Overall the past 2 months have not been great months. Even through those months have been profitable, we have had a lower than average win rate as well as 40% less trades than the average. This shows how robust this trading strategy really is. If our “bad” months are still profitable then I’m quite happy with that result!
For today the analysis of the EUR/USD remains the same as yesterday. For market cycle, nothing changes as I do not have a cycle bias. Our levels remain pretty much identical to yesterday with the only exception being the addition of yesterday’s high.
Tight Range For Pound
With the GBP/USD stalling on its move to the upside, I have a stronger bias for a push down. This does not mean we have a valid cycle down, because we do not. The reason I have a stronger bias for the push down is because of the completed upward cycle. Even if the Pound is going to continue to the upside, it often has one push against the previous move before continuing on. Therefore the push down for today becomes a higher probability move. As I say every week, directional bias is not the reason we enter the market. All trades come from a stop run of a pre-selected manipulation point, not market cycle.
For today, everything pretty much remains the same in regards to the levels we had listed yesterday. I have added one additional upper level in an effort to try to catch the move down if in fact it does occur. One of the things I mentioned in the daily market preview video was the possibility of a backside short from yesterday’s lows. This is a long way from occurring as we would need to see that point break, and then push back into the backside of that point and create a stop run down. To the downside I have the same two lower levels that we had in place yesterday.
Forex Market News For March 10th 2016
EU Interest Rate Decision 7:45 AM Eastern: Like any other interest rate decision, I would not carry a trade into this release. More than likely it will be a non event but in the small chance it does, carrying into this release is unwise. For this month rates are expected to remain unchanged.
ECB Press Conference 8:30 AM Eastern: Like most other interest rate releases as of late, the conference that follows the rate decision is the most important. I would expect this month will be the same. Obviously I would not carry a Euro trade into this release and I would recommend avoiding at least the first 15 minutes where the majority of the volatility is.