USD Mixed On Janet Yellen Testimony Feb. 25, 2015
Yellen Testimony A Mixed Bag Of Dove/Hawk Statements
As I expected Yellens testimony was just more of the same dribble with a meaningless threat of higher rates while also talking down the potential for the economy and inflation. In other words a non event. The second day could bring something eventful but the probabilities are very low at this point. Of course they will never admit that they cant raise rates.
On the other hand there was the draft of the Greek reform proposal excepted by the European Commission today as well. However it looks as though the EC actually wrote the draft and accepted it all on their own. I still have yet not found a lot of details on this but will be looking and watching my news sources today. If that did actually happen and the Greek people find out there could easily be more riots in Greek streets as they are essentially betrayed by the government they elected to sort this out. I wonder if the EC would rather be dealing with the Greek Nazi party next time around. That would be interesting. Having said that I see that the only choice the Greeks have is to leave the Euro if they want out of the current bailout program. As European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker stated, “there can be no democratic choice against the European treaties.” In other words buck up or get out of which the Golden Dawn (Nazi) Party in Greece would do in a heartbeat.
EUR/USD Chops On Yellen Testimony
Nothing has changed regarding the EUR/USD today so again I will be open on direction looking to trade at yesterdays high at 1.1356 for a short. It also has the 200 EMA as confluence and has a higher probability. Considering they wont likely break it up or down until after Yellen finishes I will be only looking for the test of the lows and take profits. If there isnt any clear entry for the short I will be open for the long at the lows around 1.1292.
GBP/USD Holding Off On Second Push
The GBP/USD holding the previous highs yesterday isn’t surprising considering they wouldn’t want to get caught by a Yellen surprise. We are seeing some potential conviction during the Asian session that I will want to see held up during London but I still have a bias for the next push upwards even though its weaker today. The best level for the long would normally be the Asian lows but if this conviction does hold then the 1.5462 is valid along with yesterdays highs if they push it high enough and test back. Otherwise the short from the Asian highs are valid as well but they will need to show me they wont let it pass.
EUR/JPY Rejects Highs Again
The EUR/JPY held Mondays range as well but now looks to be starting to move more with the USD/JPY which is what I like to see to trade it during the Asian session. There was a nice set up this morning that I missed but there is also conviction down on the UJ so it will need help from the EU to push upward if the UJ conviction holds. I will be open on direction during London on this pair looking for a long from 134.55 or a stop run to the Monday lows. Otherwise the safest short is from the highs of 135.49
Forex News Today
The calendar is slow today but again has the Yellen Testimony and another Super Mario speech during the NY session. There is also US New Home Sales but baring a big miss they will be waiting most likely for Draghi since Janet will try and keep the same tone as yesterday.
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