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USD Rallies On Better Than Expected GDP – Forex Analysis 2/29/16

February 29
01:19 2016

EUR/USD Gives First Push Down

Going back to Friday we did have a stop run of our lower manipulation point. Overall this was a nice setup. We had a break of the level about an hour and a half before the actual confirmation as we then pushed a bit lower before finally confirming to the upside just prior to noon. This trade was stopped out rather quickly and took back 2% of what was an otherwise very nice week of trading. For today I will be treating the EUR/USD as haven given a first push down and therefore I will be looking for the second push to the downside. Looking at the COT data we did see some buying pressure but this is only representative of the price action up to Tuesday. Since we have broken to fresh lows, what happens next will be rather important. For today I have two upper manipulation points from which I will look for the second push to the downside.

EUR/USD Chart - February 29th 2016

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Pound Sets Fresh Lows

The GBP/USD sets fresh lows and we are nearing the 2009 lows. Although I’m looking for the second push to the downside in the Euro, I’m not looking for the second push to the downside in the GBP/USD. For those of you who are members be sure to watch the daily market preview for a breakdown of why the GBP/USD is in a slightly different position, and why I’m keeping the directional bias open. Because we are breaking fresh lows we really don’t have a lower level from which to consider any type of stop run long. Additionally we have very few upper manipulation points from which to consider. At this point I have only one upper level and if that breaks I would need to see a new level created in order to trade from.

GBP/USD Chart - February 29th 2016

Forex Market News For February 29th 2016

US Pending Home Sales 10:00 AM Eastern: Previously this has been a news item that I would not carry a trade into. The time has passed since seeing a 15+ pip spike on this release so I’m not as concerned and I would carry into it.



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