USD Strength Continues As Expected April 10, 2015
USD Stronger After Slightly Better Unemployment Claims
Although the longer term USD strength should continue for various reasons it always helps to have fairly decent data in the form of slightly better unemployment claims. This is likely to continue today but I would also expect these large moves down will see some profit taking before another push. However if there is that much conviction on lower prices and higher USD then they will keep up the run to the downside.
How about some great Kieser Reports. These last two episodes sum it up rather well. I know alot of the members out there already watch Max but for those who dont I highly recommend watching these two interviews with Steve Keen. Oh and those that remember the live room Tuesday when we were discussing the rise in the GBP being due to Shell buying BG. Im sure that had something to do with it but in episode #2 here they also show another contributor to “unforseen” GBP strength at times. Are ya ready? How about London being what they call the “money laundering capital of the world”.
EUR/USD Makes Extended Push
With the EUR/USD making the extended push into the daily 1.0651 level it does have a slightly higher chance for a pullback being it is Friday and there are heavier levels just below. There was also some inefficiency they may want to close or will get closed on profit taking. Thats not to say it wont test lower afterward but thats what I see as the higher probability today. Having said all that I will be more open on direction since in reality there is nothing to give me solid direction today. The best long will be from yesterdays lows of 1.0639 while the safest short being from up at the breakout level of 1.0738.
GBP/USD Three Intraday Pushes To Daily Lows
Now that the daily ranges are tightening up the three push move down to test the daily lows has a higher probability for the reversal today so thats where I will be looking to trade. I should point out that it also has a lower daily close but that dont mean the yearly lows are going to break even if it does increase the probability. This has a better chance of holding for at least today although I will be open for a short if I miss the long and it pulls back to 1.4764. Otherwise I prefer to be long from 1.4687.
EUR/JPY Extends With EU
The moves on the EUR/JPY are still in step with the Euro even though they have been held back slightly by the UJ. Since we do have some small conviction above the 128.56 level the probability is they will test up to 128.96 before a potential turn. I will be looking for agreement with the EU still. Before taking a backside entry I want to see it push up a bit before the test and set up. Otherwise I will wait for 128.96 to consider a short.
Forex News Today
The calendar is slow today with only UK Industrial and Manufacturing Production during the London session. Both are expected to rise above the zero mark so and disappointment still below zero will be more GBP negative than any smaller miss to the upside being positive even though just coming out as expected should keep them from extending a push to break the daily lows.
The US has a Fed member speech of which was also one of the recent ones talking about QE4 so if they push that button again we should see USD weakness late in the day.
Have a great weekend
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