USD Weakens On Dovish FOMC Minutes Feb. 19, 2015
Fed Minutes Show Leaning Dovish, Chance Of Rate Hike Low
With the FOMC minutes showing more concern about the removal of the word “patience” from the statement shows they are more concerned these days and with their referral to any rate hike relying on good data, at this point the probability seems very low since over 80% of data for February has been negative. I should say that the data hasnt been overwhelmingly negative but for an economy that is supposed to be improving, that is not a good sign at all. The next FOMC meeting should be interesting to say the least. If we dont see some substantial increase in good data there will not only be a snow balls chance in hates for a rate increase but the probability for firing up the printing press once again will be much higher.
EUR/USD Strength From Dovish Fed
We are seeing some potential conviction during the Asian session this morning on the EUR/USd but I still have doubts there will be enough buyers to push it above the recent highs baring some deal coming through for Greece. I will be open on direction since the probability of holding this range is most likely today. We already have a wide Asian range so its highs and lows will be valid but a bit more risky without any direction. The best short will be from a test of 1.1439 again but I will be on the look out for the stop run higher and need a clear set up. I dont see any really good levels for a potential long other than the Asian lows considering the spike upwards at the end of the day. The hourly 200 has some confluence but if it does reach there I prefer to be short from the highs.
GBP/USD Rejects First Push
This is a clear example of why we are cautious after we see bottoming after a first push. Its too bad they couldnt widen the Asian range a little before the set up or at least pop lower before they did or I would have been long for the run on the news. The set up was rather good but the tight range kept me from taking the entry. Now we have the push up still more or less holding the range with some slight conviction above Mondays highs along with some topping forming. At this point I will be slightly bias for the long but they may only test up to the 1.5500 daily level before a turn. Having said that the data coming from the UK has been better than I anticipated so this conviction we see during Asia just may be true this time around. We will have to wait for the London session to see.
The best level for a long is down at 1.5416 but it wouldnt surprise me to see them drop to 1.5400 while if the conviction is going to hold I want to see them push off from here and look for a backside entry around 1.5445. The Asian lows are valid but weaker being beat up a bit.
EUR/JPY Holding Upper Range
In a normal situation this would be considered an intraday push down on the EUR/JPY but I would be happier to see them push more of the current ADR to have a clear bias on direction. The USD weakness pushing the UJ down helped as well and I prefer to see this pair running on the Yen for higher probability entries. If they can push it down before London open I will be open for the short at the Asian highs but if they show any conviction above outside the Asian box I will be looking more for the long. At that point the Asian lows at 135.15 will be where I look to get long unless they push up far enough to consider the Asian highs for a backside entry.
Forex News Today
The calendar is rather quiet until the New York session with Thursday Unemployment claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing data later on. The claims are expected to drop below 300K but I suspect it will be above yet again due to the oil sector layoffs coming in more now. Philly Fed is supposed to improve but not by that much considering how large the last miss was. Any surprise upward will be welcome for some USD strength while a drop into negative figures much more negative.
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