USDX Closes At New Monthly Lows April 29, 2015
USD Weak Coming Into FOMC Today
The USD has taken some what of a beating over the last couple weeks as the data comes in far from backing any sort of rate hike. Should I say it? I Told Ya So! Today we have the FOMC meeting along with GDP figures a few hours before that is expected to drop from 2.2% to 1.0%. Thats a rather steep drop in expectations to sat the least. If it does manage to disappoint I can only assume that any threat of a rate hike this year will just be blowing smoke up someones hind end. As usual and like myself and several others have been saying all along. What I do find sort of disturbing is just how many still keep saying growth is good in the US or anywhere for that matter (check UK GDP yesterday). I guess I do understand with the amount of greed but how these people sleep at night is beyond me.
The people are getting restless. Check the quote from the Baltimore Oriels owners son.
“…my greater source of personal concern, outrage… is focused upon an American political elite that have shipped middle class and working class jobs away from Baltimore and cities and towns around the US… plunged tens of millions of good hard-working Americans into economic devastation… in order to control an unfairly impoverished population living under an ever-declining standard of living and suffering at the butt end of an ever-more militarized and aggressive surveillance state.”
And dont miss the Rupert Murdock quote in yesterdays Keiser Report
Last but not least we should never forget some of the more famous recent quotes. Prime Minister of Luxembourg and Head of the Euro-Group Jean-Claude Junker stated: “We all know what to do, we just don’t know how to get re-elected after we have done it.” and “When things get real bad you just have to LIE”.
At this point I am thinking these guys should be more concerned about keeping their heads attached to their neck rather than keeping their jobs.
EUR/USD Tests 1.1000
Well I guess I was off by ten pips but whose gonna argue over that?
The EUR/USD did poke higher as I expected yesterday pulling right off the Asia lows. The set up wasnt bad but the sucker didnt give us an entry but there is still comfort in knowing we had the analysis correct. Although I admit its even better to capitalize on it. Since this pair has shown unclear pushes and the USD is weak I will expect a test of the overall monthly highs around 1.1035. In better circumstances I would be looking at this as a third push but since there is no clear topping it has a better chance of a push to test higher.
The best level for a long is down at 1.0926 which will give them plenty of room to run the test but if I see that the Asian lows hold during London then they may just push off from 1.0962 and potentially break those monthly highs. I will be open for the short at yesterdays highs as well. The short will only play out if US GDP is better than expected and/or if the Fed still holds on to the rate hike threat.
GBP/USD Pushes Higher With No Topping
The GBP/USD pushed up even after the bad GDP figures from the UK yesterday. This increases the probability of the test to the March highs but the prospect for a reversal anytime is there as well. I will be open on direction but the fact there is no topping as of yet the chance of a break to test the March highs is better. The best level for a long is down at 1.5272 but I have my doubts they will pull it back that far considering there are no signs of solid rejection at the highs. The 1.5335 is a daily break out level and is weaker than a proven level so they may just push off from 1.5305 or the Asian lows if there is that much conviction in higher prices. I will be open for the short but will need quite a bit showing they will reverse during London today.
EUR/JPY Pushes Up From Range
The EUR/JPY followed the EU up for a first push yesterday so I will be bias for the long while open for the short from yesterdays highs. The best level is down at 130.00 but if the Asian lows hold and they push it to leave the Asian box closer to the highs I will be open for the long at 130.31
Forex News Today
The calendar is slow until the NY session today so there is a good chance they dont push things around until the US GDP comes out. There is UK housing data that might get them running the GBP but will most likely be through the EUR/GBP if at all. The German CPI data will trickle out all day and have final data as the NY session opens. Expectations are not good at -.10 on the monthly data.
As mentioned above the US has GDP with negative expectations as well. This will get them moving the USD on any miss I expect. The larger the miss the bigger the move. I dont think it will be good but at this point it would be too risky to guess. They also have pending Home Sales but barring a large miss it will likely be ignored until Janet has her say later in the day.
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