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Will The GBP/USD Continue Down? July 27th 2015

July 27
04:29 2015

I hope everyone had a great weekend. I found this interesting cartoon that I thought I would share. Its titled, How We Got Here – The 2008 Financial Crisis For Dummies. You can click the link to check it out. It really simplifies what we had occur and then what has occurred since the 2008 collapse. It also shows just how stupid people are. The major banks that were “too big to fail”, the banks that were going to be broken up so this could never happen again….those same banks have grown by an average of 40%. If they were too big to fail then do you think they are going to let them fail now? Obviously the answer to that question is no. The no so obvious part is what is their incompetence going to cost YOU?

EUR/USD Starting To Potentially Test Higher

If your looking at a zoomed out picture of the EUR/USD on the 1H chart you can see we are at a decision point. Any move higher and the month long previous move down may be coming to an end. If we do hold near the high then a retest of last weeks low becomes likely. Today I’m still open on direction and do not currently have a cycle bias. As a result I will be looking to go long from any of the lower manipulation points, and short from any of the upper levels should the valid criteria be meet once the price gets there. On Friday the Euro did produce a long setup from the lows but this trade was closed out at break even after one of our trade management criteria was trigger. 

EUR/USD Chart - July 27th 2015

GBP/USD Approaching Daily Trend Line

Over the last couple weeks the COT Data has made a rather interesting shift. About 3 weeks ago we had one of the larger increases in short position on the Pound that we had seen in a while. Over the last 2 weeks buying has started to come back in among smart money. We also have a daily chart trend line approaching which could signal further upside. I’m not saying the trend line is important because its a trend line. The reason anything like that holds importance is because it compresses orders into a tight area. Therefore if a stop run were to occur at that area, then THAT would be the important point….not the trend line itself. 

For those of you who look to hold trades for a longer period of time the two points mentioned above could be the catalyst to do so on any short term entry. This opinion could obviously change if price action disagrees with it. At this point, like the Euro, I do not have a directional bias on the GBP/USD. Therefore I will be trading either direction based off of any trade that sets up from our listed levels.GBP/USD Chart - July 27th 2015


Forex News For July 27th 2015

German IFO Business Climate M/M 4:00 AM Eastern: This news does have the ability to spike the market more than 15 pips should a big deviation be hit. Any deviation that is a full 1 point +/- from the expected number should create a decent move. This also has a lot of other news that comes out at the same time. If your looking to take a trade make sure you have the full picture before doing so off of just the headline number. Today’s news is forecast at 107.2

US Core Durable Good M/M 8:30 AM Eastern: Like all other US Data, Core Durable Goods is getting a lot more attention from the market. As a results a deviation of .3 +/- from the forecast number of .5  will create a sizeable move in the market. If your trading the Yen crosses I would recommend trading the USD/JPY rather than the EUR/JPY or GBP/JPY. The main reason is you get a conflict in the movement. Let me explain.

Lets assume the number is .5 better than expected. This is a very large deviation and as such the EUR/USD should spike down aggressively. At the same time the USD/JPY would be spiking up. What if you decided you wanted to trade the EUR/JPY. In this situation the EUR/USD would be pulling the EUR/JPY down while the USD/JPY would be pulling the EUR/JPY up. This type of pull back and forth would occur the same on the GBP/JPY and therefore they are better to simply avoid on US data in my opinion.


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