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Will The GBP/USD Retrace Hold? Forex Analysis 4/12/2016

April 12
00:00 2016

Range Holds On EUR/USD

Another day passes and the Euro remains in a very tight range. Over the past few weeks we have seen the ADR on the EUR/USD decrease from over 100 pips to roughly 80 pips. Overall that has been roughly a 20-30% decrease in the average daily range in a very short period of time. If anyone looked at the COT data they noticed the continued buying pressure on the Euro which does make a break to the upside the higher probability. As I always say though, directional bias is NOT a reason to take a trade in my opinion. We still need to see a valid stop run from a high probability manipulation point. At this point our levels remain the same with one upper and one lower listed level.

EUR/USD Chart - April 12th 2016

Will The GBP/USD Retrace Hold?

As I talked about in yesterday’s forex commentary I do have a longer term bias to the downside but the short term push to the upside for a few days might occur. As you can see today we did indeed start pushing up on the short term basis. I do not feel like this move is expected to hold though. With that being said, according to the rules of the DTFL forex course, we have to call this a first push to the upside. Therefore, with today’s first push to the upside we have to look for the second push to the upside tomorrow. As such we only list lower levels from which to look for the second push to the upside. It is always critical to remember that directional bias is only the start, and we still need to see a stop run of a listed manipulation point to actually trigger the trade. This is extremely important, especially when a cycle breaks down and fails to continue.

GBP/USD Chart - April 12th 2016

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Forex Market News For April 12th 2016

UK CPI y/y 4:30 AM Eastern: CPI has seen fairly consistent follow through in the direction of the release but not right off the bat. What has happened is we see a spike in the direction of the release but then the market often pulls back through pre-release against the spike. After an hour or two we then see the market go in the direction of the release. If you are going to chase the release then I would get the entry at or below the pre-release price. For this month the y/y number is expected at .4%



About Author

Sterling Suhr

Sterling Suhr

Hey everyone, my name is Sterling Suhr. You and I more than likely have quite a bit in common when it comes to Forex trading. Like most, I started trading Forex and thought it would be rather easy.Everything I read said it would make you profitable so why wouldn't I believe it Forex trading was easy? The unfortunate part is that belief, and the hope that goes along with it pushed me into buying every scam Forex product there was. I've tried every EA, software, strategy, chart pattern, candle pattern, signal service, etc, all with negative results. The bottom line is mainstream Forex trading strategy will continue to fail retail traders. It wasn't until I realized this point did I begin to see success.On a personal note I currently reside in South Western Michigan. I personally love this part of the country and enjoy having a taste of all four seasons. I was recently married in May of 2012 and Chad has given me a stiff warning to not have children:) As a personal hobby I enjoy aviation and really anything to do with the outdoors.

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