Worst Macro Data Sends S&P To Record Highs April 24, 2015
S&P Tests All Time Highs On Data Disappointments
This is the new normal that corrected the old new normal, as if there was ever any true normal to begin with. Back in the old days we could depend on markets that were somewhat data driven in such a way that bad news was bad and good news was good right? Not any more, those days are gone and wont be back until the central planners let it happen or lose control. I have to admit they havent lost it yet and could manage to keep the loose ends hanging on for quite some time. Or not.
I should also mention that they seem to be closer on a Greek deal that will keep them in the Euro Zone. That would surely garner some optimism and could be the reason why the seemingly risk appetite was flowing good yesterday. However I am not holding my breath, sure it would be great and at least keep the central planners less on edge but we have seen statements like this before only to see them fall apart just minutes or hours later. Remember the Greek Govt. has angry Greeks at home. Below is what Reuters said.
Alexis Tsipras said on Thursday he was optimistic of reaching a deal with the country’s creditors after making significant progress in reform-for-cash negotiations.
Tsipras, who met German Chancellor Angela Merkel on the sidelines of an EU summit on migration in Brussels, said both sides agreed that “there was significant progress made recently in discussions with the Brussels group, that we have covered a large part of the distance”.
Asked if Greece and its partners were close to a deal, he said: “We are closer than we were previously. I am very optimistic.”
I will believe it when I see it and the proof will be in the fine print. Im sure everyone is just as anxious as I am to see just what kind of deal is struck and who is doing the bending over.
EUR/USD Tests Highs On Potential Greek Deal
The run of 170+ pips to test the recent highs on the EUR/USD is most likely due to the potential Greek deal but I have my doubts they will have the conviction to make the break unless they see something in writing proving just what was agreed upon. I will say that the Troika does seem like they are seeing that the risk to their control is much higher than they anticipate on a Greek default so just maybe they have seen the light.
The running of this range does leave direction in doubt yet again along with good levels more distant than usual. The most probable trade I see is the short from 1.0833 since price is closer and it will take full optimism on a Greek deal to push above the highs. However should more come to light today that shows they are closer its going to go. Therefore I will be open for a long from 1.0793 during London looking to take a low risk entry. Anytime a trade is dependent on a tape bomb agreeing with direction its much riskier and the higher probability in my view is they will be hammering out details over the weekend rather than push it through today.
Negative UK Data Holds GBP/USD Back
I have to say the move on the GBP/USD was a valiant attempt at a third push since risk was on and stocks on the bid. Without any conviction and holding the topping from Wednesday they just may be finished waiting to see what happens with Greece as well. If they are going to finish the push today they will likely go from the 1.5029 level while any conviction below will increase the probability for a test lower into 1.4969-83 range. There is a smaller chance they hold the Asian range before pushing up but would be best to see them play the breakout traders to the Asian highs if the range remains tight.
EUR/JPY Pushes Up On Euro Strength
The push up on the EUR/JPY does qualify as a second push over three days so I will have a bias for the long today. Although it will take a continuation of the Euro strength and potential Greek deal. The best level for the long will be at down at 128.94 but the Asian lows will be valid but a little higher risk if they cant widen the range below 125.25. Since the probability does lessen when they run the pushes like this I will be open for the short at 129.65 but will need great price action and agreement from the EU in order to short this pair today.
Forex News Today
The calendar starts with German IFO Business Climate expected to improve but considering the disappointing data yesterday the chance of that happening is lower.
The US has Durable Goods expecting a pop above the zero mark but it dont look good considering the lower revision to last months core data and the disappointing Housing print yesterday.
Have a great weekend
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