Looking at the move on the EUR/USD yesterday my first thought is that we have a first push up. However after the push down Wednesday this looks more like a third push chop even if they are fairly large moves. Therefore I will be open on direction and look for a strong hourly close during [...]

Although we did get the third push we were expecting. It was sloppy at best and there wasn’t an entry to take the trade. Of course it also took Ben Bernanke and the Fed Meeting Minutes to make the pop. We also have the first push down today after the blatant stop run that made [...]

As you may have noticed the commentary is out quite early today. I have an important meeting on another island today so will be boarding a boat in a couple hours and didn’t want to have to load it from my laptop so its going to be short and to the point. We have our second [...]

The price action on the EUR/USD yesterday showed us that the reversal scenario was what they had in mind after the three pushes down. At this point I am going to consider this the first push up and be slightly bias for the long today. Since we do have Bernanke testifying tomorrow there is a [...]

Looking at the EUR/USD this Monday morning I see a couple different scenarios we should be considering. The first is we have three long term pushes down. This is the higher probability scenario mainly because the push to the upside on Thursday last week didn’t have the momentum to take the stops above the 1.2941 [...]

As I look at the EUR/USD this morning it sure looks like we may have a failed second push. I am not totally convinced until we get the hourly close above the 1.2940 level. That coupled with the way the market closed tells me the probability for them inducing longs to push out short positions is [...]

The EUR/USD gave us the second push we expected in yesterdays commentary and we will be expecting the third today. Since they rarely if ever do the same thing twice my thoughts are the best level they will use is at 1.2912. Its entirely possible they run off from the Asian highs again today but [...]

My concern about the push up on the EUR/USD during the Asian session being a false push was validated with a nice exhaustion type candle during London yesterday. I cant say it qualifies as real exhaustion or even a stop run but it was a clear signal they wouldn’t let price rise. There was also [...]

The EUR/USD has started the reversal this morning rather than making any headway yesterday. The plan ended up being to finish the third push on the GBP/USD while the EUR/USD held a tighter range. The move this morning seems to be started from the news that the UK will be holding a referendum on exiting [...]

First of all I hope all members and nonmembers alike had a great Mothers Day. We did get the third intraday push on the EUR/USD Friday which increases the chance that we see a reversal today. It may not be the full blown reversal we might normally expect if the market was trading the long [...]

Again we have yet another false push up on the EUR/USD and potentially two intraday pushes down or a first push long term. Having said that I will be treating this as a first push scenario and be open for a long also. With the smart money not paying much attention to the usual cycles [...]

Today the EUR/USD has had a clear first push up. Making a clean move for 120+ pips and not showing much rejection at the highs. At this point I will be cautiously bias for the second push to the upside today. With equities making new all time highs everyday the Euro is going to benefit [...]

The price action on the EUR/USD yesterday didn’t clear anything up as to which direction they intent on pushing it so we are left just looking for the manipulation again. Strictly considering the price action I am thinking they will push it down but I will need to see something pretty clear to be taking [...]

The EUR/USD has definitely gone into the chop and has even less clarity on direction today. With an 87 pip push down I would normally be bias for the next push in that direction but the support at the 4 hour 200 EMA kicked in again and it couldn’t get a close below Fridays lows so [...]

Looking at the price action on the EUR/USD this Monday morning its hard to tell if we have a second push or a rejected first push. I surely expected that the better than expected employment data would have at least made a clear push but it didn’t get a close beyond Thursdays lows so it leaves [...]

We have our first push down as expected thanks to Super Mario. I was rather impressed with the whipsaw that happened due to the rate cut. He didn’t surprise with the base rate but did with the marginal rate which for some reason looked to be positive. As members probably know well my thoughts are [...]

The question of the day today for the EUR/USD is, will the ECB cut rates as expected? The fact is there was some discussion about interest rates at the last ECB meeting but it wasn’t that significant and really didn’t leave much for someone to make a sure assessment of they will cut rates this [...]

The EUR/USD looks primed for the reversal today as the cleanest way to view it is a 3 push move over 5 days. What does have me a bit concerned is there is not a clear topping formation as of yet or any signs of exhaustion. The best way to be trading it today will [...]

It would sure seem that we have a decent push up on the EUR/USD today and although I would like to have more of a bias to the upside now I am remaining cautious today. The long bias I was developing during the Asian session as I wrote yesterdays commentary was correct but the test [...]

As I look at the charts this Monday morning I can surely say I didn’t miss much by taking Friday off. The EUR/USD only popped out of the Asian range once to the downside before moving up and closing the day in the upper part of the range. Now we have a gap to the [...]

Here we are at the end of the trading week and what a crazy week it was. Having done rather well with what we had to work with I am taking today off and the family and I are headed to the beach for the weekend. I managed to get 4 trades this week (which [...]

Well the EUR/USD has gone back into the range it was in last couple weeks and the reversal off the three intraday pushes I had marked yesterday. I’m rather sure the nasty Durable Goods data yesterday has something to do with it as more signs of the US slowing even though Bernanke prints 85 billion a [...]

The EUR/USD can be looked at a couple different ways today. It did get the push down expected in yesterdays commentary after testing the right side of the head and shoulder pattern on the French news. I have to say the manipulation was comical during the live room yesterday. The reason is French news never [...]

Again there is not much to talk about concerning the EUR/USD today. We continue to stay in a fairly tight range. Having said that there are a couple price action related things I should mention. Considering the head and shoulders pattern that has formed over the past three trading days my bias will be for [...]

The EUR/USD this morning shows that again we don’t have a clear direction. I could argue the case for two intraday pushes to the upside but with the second push of 86 pips getting fully retraced in the same day makes me think they have been clearing out weak shorts. There was also a nice [...]

The EUR/USD today has gone back into confusion mode but with the small daily range and rejection at the end of the day I am keeping a small short bias for today. As I type this its sandwiched between the hourly and 4 hour 200 EMAs and looking to be fixing to break to the [...]

Its been a long time since we have seen such a yo-yo market with a 180 pip push one day and a 200 pip push in the opposite direction the next. Looking at the daily chart you will see what I mean with the beautiful set of daily legs. At this point I will be [...]

After the price action we had on the EUR/USD yesterday it would surely seem that we have a clear direction and it is up. Having said that the move of over 170 pips concerns me as usual. Today my bias will be to the upside but the potential for a deeper pullback before it makes the [...]

In todays commentary I am going to skip the rant, get straight to the charts and get back to what is stopping the economic recovery on another day. I also want to express our condolences to the victims in the Boston bombings. The facts are far from clear at this point so we will be [...]

As I am reading through my news sources this morning I found something interesting from The Telegraph I thought I would share. Germany has lost its patients. Yes I know your going to say that the Cyprus deal made that pretty clear also but at this point it seems more than just Merkel posturing for the [...]

Things are looking a bit clearer on direction for the EUR/USD today. The best way to look at this is we have a first push to the upside with a nice 95 pip run after the false 70+ pip push to the downside Wednesday. Since this is a first push scenario I will be open [...]

I always thought that the Fed would be one if not the only provider of data that would be safe from the insiders that get information and give it to their buddies for a price of course. It turns out I was wrong about that too. Of course I am never surprised to find out [...]

The EUR/USD went on to test the 1.3100 level just as I mentioned in yesterdays commentary. Now its looking better for the reversal but I have to admit I am not that impressed with the topping formation. What is clear is the 3 intraday pushes in the third push up  along with the scope of [...]

Bernanke did as I expected and sent the EUR/USD soaring after the US market closed. As I was sitting here watching price I was thinking to myself something just happened. That’s when I remembered what I said in yesterdays commentary about Helicopter Ben having a speech late in the day and gave a warning to [...]

Here we are starting a new week after the most dismal NFP print in 9 months but hey Unemployment went down right. Well yes it did and I should also point out the revisions to the upside for January and February but there is something we have to look at the fine print for. Which [...]

Well we have finally got our answer on direction from Super Mario yesterday. In short the Euro will be defended at all costs and there “IS NO PLAN B”. Well that isn’t quite what I was expecting since we all know there have been many banks around the world thinking of plan B,C and D [...]

The EUR/USD still hasn’t broken out of the range or made a clear push to show us intent on a direction. It is a big week news wise so that can be expected in times like these. The ECB is on tap today and it will be interesting to hear what Super Mario has to [...]

The EUR/USD has not gotten any clearer today with only having the beginnings of a push to the downside. I will be so much happier when this thing can break in a direction. I don’t even care which way but showing us some sort of direction would be nice. Again the only way to trade this is [...]

The EUR/USD has defied gravity for now and has shown a push to the upside. With the markets being closed in Europe yesterday and the much worse than expected ISM figures from the US it sure seems like there is some betting on the Fed increasing the QE. Equities had a bad day while the [...]

Happy April fools day one and all. What a fitting day to open up my news wires this morning only to find out that I was spot on when I said I knew there would be some of those rich folks getting their money out of Cyprus banks while the doors were closed for every [...]

The EUR/USD has gone into a third push chop and does have the potential first intraday push to the upside. Considering the holiday weekend starting today and low liquidity this does have a decent chance at a second push due to the big boys using the low volume to push equities higher which will also [...]

We have gotten what looks to be the clear second push on the EUR/USD yesterday. It never did reach the level I expected to see the manipulation at and pretty much ran off directly out of the Asian session box, gave one look back and took off to the downside. Even though the pushes are [...]

My apologies for the short commentary this morning. I had an appointment this morning and got a late start.  The EUR/USD is showing signs of going into a chop but after a 200+ pip move that don’t surprise me. At this point its best to trade the manipulation to the highs or lows. With a 57 pip range holding for almost [...]

I hate to beat a dead horse so to speak but I have to say I find it comical to find out that I wasnt far off when I said the Russians and others would find a way of getting their money out of Cyprus before the Troika and Cyprus had a chance to take [...]

At the eleventh hour just before the ECB was due to cut off liquidity funds to Cyprus banks. We have a deal! Well isnt that just peachy? However the details are still a little bit unclear. Well quite a bit unclear. What does seem to be the case is they aren’t going to hit the small depositors [...]

Here we are at the end of the week and still have no clear direction on the EUR/USD. I cant say I am surprised but this whole Cyprus fiasco should have driven this thing down more than it has. All news points to the ECB and Troika letting these guys fail and it seems the [...]

Yesterday was some kind of wild day in the markets. This whole Cyprus thing along with the UK budget announcement made the markets really jumpy to say the least. Then good old Ben chimes in with his 2 cents and they get just a little more nuts. I didn’t get a trade yesterday. I was tempted a [...]

As I sit here this morning thinking of how I will start off todays commentary I cant get this stupid  80′s song out of my head. I cant even say I have heard it recently but it seems kind of crazy it comes into my mind and wont go away. I cant remember who sings [...]

It would seem that the EU has opened a can of worms they might just be wishing they never tried to touch. The Cyprus deposit confiscation has backfired so far and dont look like any form of stealing a percentage of savings deposits will pass in the Cypriot government. They are having a second bank [...]

Of course regarding the Cyprus bail out fix I expected a gap open today but to be honest I wasnt expecting it to be over 150 pips on the EUR/USD and an astounding 300+ on the EUR/JPY. Crazy I tell you. Could this be the start of Europe imploding? It sure could. As I was [...]