Here we are with the big Bernak day. To taper or not to taper, that is the question. My thoughts are no they wont but there will likely be some changes to the statement that get gets the big boys (and their algos) underwear in a bundle. It will be a good day to just [...]

Its not that often that I don’t have to move my lines from the previous days commentary to the next. Even if we are in a chop the levels usually change somewhat. That’s not the case with the EUR/USD today. price respected all three lines I had on the chart and they are all still [...]

The EUR/USD seems to be in confusion mode giving the intraday push down Friday only to retrace more than half the move during the ate day US pump up. This is normal these days since we do have the Fed Meeting this week. With all the talk of tapering going around it is expected that [...]

Today we have what looks like a confused market with the 100+ pip down move fully retraced in a single day but no real commitment to break the highs created during the Frankie fake out yesterday. direction is blurry at best on the EUR/USD. I do see a decent toping formation that does make me [...]

We got the third intraday push on the EUR/USD yesterday as I expected in the daily commentary. However it also managed to push a little deeper than the level I saw as the highest probability at 1.3291. Even though the 1.3267 level was not mentioned specifically in yesterdays commentary as you can see I always [...]

Now we have a clearer picture on direction for the EUR/USD. On a long term perspective we have the first clear push up while on an intraday basis we have two pushes. I will be looking at this from the intraday view since we have been seeing the markets trade off them much more than [...]

Looking at the price action on the EUR/USD this morning its clear why we are always a little skeptical about first pushes that don’t clearly make an hourly close beyond the third push chop. We did see the bounce off Fridays lows holding price up and moving off to test Fridays highs. At this point [...]

The EUR/USD this morning started off the week with a 30 pip gap to the downside that has already closed. It has tested Fridays lows and found support at the level I expected the pullback to in Fridays commentary. Its too bad it took Non Farm Payrolls to do it making it untradeable. However I [...]

So of course this morning I wake up to a what the heck caused that moment. The USD got a blanket party and came out rather bloody for what seems to be no apparent reason. I did see that European peripheral spreads shrunk up rather tight which does explain some of that but I’m thinking [...]

Not much has changed from yesterday with the EUR/USD other than it has become even less clear on direction. With NFP coming up Friday there is a good chance that we will see similar price action today. having said that there is the rate decision from the ECB along with the press conference so its [...]

With yesterdays price action on the EUR/USD it seems as though the big boys are waiting for some more news to tell them which direction to push the market. We have a meager 57 pip range yesterday which tells me they are waiting for something. Since there is some big news coming for the next [...]

With the EUR/USD trading more off the intraday pushes than I have seen in a long time I am more inclined to think we have 2 pushes up now and will see the third today. However I will remain cautious and be ready for some clear signs they intend to push it down. What I [...]

We did get the reversal off the three intraday pushes Friday on the EUR/USD. Now we have the first intraday push down and I will have a small bias for the continuation. If they do plan to move it down today I expect the 1.3015 level to hold. In reality it is still in a [...]

We have our second long term push on the EUR/USD today. However we also have 3 intraday pushes up and considering the market has been trading off the intraday pushes more than usual I will be keeping my mind open on direction. Price has hit a significant breakout level on the daily chart and does [...]

The EUR/USD went and made the reversal yesterday so now I wont have a bias and just look for the price action to tell me what they are doing. It did give the hourly stop run below the Asian lows but it was small and didn’t give a pullback for the entry. Not that I [...]

The price action we saw on the EUR/USD yesterday after the nice hourly conviction candle during the Asian session is precisely why its hard to trust any conviction we see during the Asian session. There was an aggressive entry with a very nice manipulation pattern just before the Frankfurt open but I passed on it [...]

Back to business as usual today. I hope all had a great day off and enjoyed the videos I posted yesterday. The markets did as expected and were stuck in a small range with the exception of the Yen pairs which did see some movement but was still well below their average daily range. All [...]

Since today is a holiday in both the UK and US I will be taking the day off trading today and I expect most of you will be too. I am watching the Yen crosses during Asian but nothing looks to good yet and with the move already being 60+ pips on the Eur/Jpy I have [...]

Looking at the move on the EUR/USD yesterday my first thought is that we have a first push up. However after the push down Wednesday this looks more like a third push chop even if they are fairly large moves. Therefore I will be open on direction and look for a strong hourly close during [...]

Although we did get the third push we were expecting. It was sloppy at best and there wasn’t an entry to take the trade. Of course it also took Ben Bernanke and the Fed Meeting Minutes to make the pop. We also have the first push down today after the blatant stop run that made [...]

As you may have noticed the commentary is out quite early today. I have an important meeting on another island today so will be boarding a boat in a couple hours and didn’t want to have to load it from my laptop so its going to be short and to the point. We have our second [...]

The price action on the EUR/USD yesterday showed us that the reversal scenario was what they had in mind after the three pushes down. At this point I am going to consider this the first push up and be slightly bias for the long today. Since we do have Bernanke testifying tomorrow there is a [...]

Looking at the EUR/USD this Monday morning I see a couple different scenarios we should be considering. The first is we have three long term pushes down. This is the higher probability scenario mainly because the push to the upside on Thursday last week didn’t have the momentum to take the stops above the 1.2941 [...]

As I look at the EUR/USD this morning it sure looks like we may have a failed second push. I am not totally convinced until we get the hourly close above the 1.2940 level. That coupled with the way the market closed tells me the probability for them inducing longs to push out short positions is [...]

The EUR/USD gave us the second push we expected in yesterdays commentary and we will be expecting the third today. Since they rarely if ever do the same thing twice my thoughts are the best level they will use is at 1.2912. Its entirely possible they run off from the Asian highs again today but [...]

My concern about the push up on the EUR/USD during the Asian session being a false push was validated with a nice exhaustion type candle during London yesterday. I cant say it qualifies as real exhaustion or even a stop run but it was a clear signal they wouldn’t let price rise. There was also [...]

The EUR/USD has started the reversal this morning rather than making any headway yesterday. The plan ended up being to finish the third push on the GBP/USD while the EUR/USD held a tighter range. The move this morning seems to be started from the news that the UK will be holding a referendum on exiting [...]

First of all I hope all members and nonmembers alike had a great Mothers Day. We did get the third intraday push on the EUR/USD Friday which increases the chance that we see a reversal today. It may not be the full blown reversal we might normally expect if the market was trading the long [...]

Again we have yet another false push up on the EUR/USD and potentially two intraday pushes down or a first push long term. Having said that I will be treating this as a first push scenario and be open for a long also. With the smart money not paying much attention to the usual cycles [...]

Today the EUR/USD has had a clear first push up. Making a clean move for 120+ pips and not showing much rejection at the highs. At this point I will be cautiously bias for the second push to the upside today. With equities making new all time highs everyday the Euro is going to benefit [...]

The price action on the EUR/USD yesterday didn’t clear anything up as to which direction they intent on pushing it so we are left just looking for the manipulation again. Strictly considering the price action I am thinking they will push it down but I will need to see something pretty clear to be taking [...]

The EUR/USD has definitely gone into the chop and has even less clarity on direction today. With an 87 pip push down I would normally be bias for the next push in that direction but the support at the 4 hour 200 EMA kicked in again and it couldn’t get a close below Fridays lows so [...]

Looking at the price action on the EUR/USD this Monday morning its hard to tell if we have a second push or a rejected first push. I surely expected that the better than expected employment data would have at least made a clear push but it didn’t get a close beyond Thursdays lows so it leaves [...]

We have our first push down as expected thanks to Super Mario. I was rather impressed with the whipsaw that happened due to the rate cut. He didn’t surprise with the base rate but did with the marginal rate which for some reason looked to be positive. As members probably know well my thoughts are [...]

The question of the day today for the EUR/USD is, will the ECB cut rates as expected? The fact is there was some discussion about interest rates at the last ECB meeting but it wasn’t that significant and really didn’t leave much for someone to make a sure assessment of they will cut rates this [...]

The EUR/USD looks primed for the reversal today as the cleanest way to view it is a 3 push move over 5 days. What does have me a bit concerned is there is not a clear topping formation as of yet or any signs of exhaustion. The best way to be trading it today will [...]

It would sure seem that we have a decent push up on the EUR/USD today and although I would like to have more of a bias to the upside now I am remaining cautious today. The long bias I was developing during the Asian session as I wrote yesterdays commentary was correct but the test [...]

As I look at the charts this Monday morning I can surely say I didn’t miss much by taking Friday off. The EUR/USD only popped out of the Asian range once to the downside before moving up and closing the day in the upper part of the range. Now we have a gap to the [...]

Here we are at the end of the trading week and what a crazy week it was. Having done rather well with what we had to work with I am taking today off and the family and I are headed to the beach for the weekend. I managed to get 4 trades this week (which [...]

Well the EUR/USD has gone back into the range it was in last couple weeks and the reversal off the three intraday pushes I had marked yesterday. I’m rather sure the nasty Durable Goods data yesterday has something to do with it as more signs of the US slowing even though Bernanke prints 85 billion a [...]

The EUR/USD can be looked at a couple different ways today. It did get the push down expected in yesterdays commentary after testing the right side of the head and shoulder pattern on the French news. I have to say the manipulation was comical during the live room yesterday. The reason is French news never [...]

Again there is not much to talk about concerning the EUR/USD today. We continue to stay in a fairly tight range. Having said that there are a couple price action related things I should mention. Considering the head and shoulders pattern that has formed over the past three trading days my bias will be for [...]

The EUR/USD this morning shows that again we don’t have a clear direction. I could argue the case for two intraday pushes to the upside but with the second push of 86 pips getting fully retraced in the same day makes me think they have been clearing out weak shorts. There was also a nice [...]

The EUR/USD today has gone back into confusion mode but with the small daily range and rejection at the end of the day I am keeping a small short bias for today. As I type this its sandwiched between the hourly and 4 hour 200 EMAs and looking to be fixing to break to the [...]

Its been a long time since we have seen such a yo-yo market with a 180 pip push one day and a 200 pip push in the opposite direction the next. Looking at the daily chart you will see what I mean with the beautiful set of daily legs. At this point I will be [...]

After the price action we had on the EUR/USD yesterday it would surely seem that we have a clear direction and it is up. Having said that the move of over 170 pips concerns me as usual. Today my bias will be to the upside but the potential for a deeper pullback before it makes the [...]

In todays commentary I am going to skip the rant, get straight to the charts and get back to what is stopping the economic recovery on another day. I also want to express our condolences to the victims in the Boston bombings. The facts are far from clear at this point so we will be [...]

As I am reading through my news sources this morning I found something interesting from The Telegraph I thought I would share. Germany has lost its patients. Yes I know your going to say that the Cyprus deal made that pretty clear also but at this point it seems more than just Merkel posturing for the [...]

Things are looking a bit clearer on direction for the EUR/USD today. The best way to look at this is we have a first push to the upside with a nice 95 pip run after the false 70+ pip push to the downside Wednesday. Since this is a first push scenario I will be open [...]

I always thought that the Fed would be one if not the only provider of data that would be safe from the insiders that get information and give it to their buddies for a price of course. It turns out I was wrong about that too. Of course I am never surprised to find out [...]